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Hello, my name is Zsolt Csepregi. I’m the regional, analyst for the Middle east and North Africa at Eberbridge’s Global Insights Team. Today I will outline the ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas and highlight the associated security and business risks. The newly announced Gaza ceasefire, which was brokered by the United States, Egypt, Turkey and Qatar, is a phase one agreement which is designed to secure the release of Israeli hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners, assured limited withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza and expanded humanitarian aid access.

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It’s an important step, but it’s not a solution. Mediators themselves call it a starting point. A narrow humanitarian and political transaction, but not a complete peace plan. The goal right now is simple, to stop the immediate fighting and get the Israeli hostages home.

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Everything beyond that, from Hamas disarmament to the future of Gaza’s governance, remains deeply contested. The second phase, meant to turn this truce into a sustainable political settlement, will be much harder. Israel insists that Hamas must be disarmed and excluded from the governance of Gaza.

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While Hamas for its part, refuses to surrender control or its legitimacy. These positions are fundamentally incompatible once the immediate pressure eases. So the Israeli hostages are home and Israeli troops pull back, both sides will have far less incentive to compromise.

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External actors are also shaping this trajectory. Palestinian Islamic Jihad has cautiously accepted the deal, but there is still a risk that more militant elements within Hamas or BIG could splinter towards Islamic State aligned, groups that outrightly reject any form of political compromise with Israel.

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The Houthis in Yemen continue to reject the ceasefire outright, keeping Red Sea maritime risks elevated, while Hezbollah remains deliberately ambiguous along the northern border of Israel. For businesses and international operators, this environment represents de escalation without guaranteeing a resolution.

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It’s a reduction in immediate violence, but not in underlying instability. So logistics and air travel are likely to remain volatile with potential disruptions from renewed rocket fire, drone attacks or political protests.

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And beyond the region, pro Palestinian and pro Israeli demonstrations will continue across major global cities, carrying reputational and operational risk for multinational firms. Global companies should therefore remain vigilant and adaptable as this first phase of the ceasefire unfold and negotiations on the second phase start.

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Even if progress continues, instability will persist across the Middle East. Organizations should diversify logistic routes, review travel and security protocols and maintain flexible staffing and crisis communication plans. Monitoring both of regional developments as well as protest movements globally will be key in protecting personnel and operations.

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The coming months will demand strategic patience coupled with operational flexibility as the ceasefire talks may reduce violence temporarily but are far from assuring a lasting stability.

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Hello, my name is Christie Majoros. I am the Regional Analyst for North America on Everbridge’s Global Insights team. And today I’ll be giving a brief update on the current government shutdown, which is in its seventh day after starting on October 1st. At this time, there is little indication of the compromise in voting which would end the current shutdown and reopen the government.

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And this is seeming unlikely to happen today or perhaps even this week. Government shutdowns are nothing new. We saw them during the previous Trump administration, and we saw them during the Obama administration. Like previous shutdowns, this current shutdown is causing many of the same problems in the halting of the disbursement of federal funding and also in the furloughing of the federal employees that run federal agencies.

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However, unlike previous shutdowns, which were a temporary pause on government processes, this current shutdown has been seized upon as an opportunity for the administration to reallocate federal resources so that they are more in keeping with current executive priorities.

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We’re seeing this happen in two ways. First, in the withdrawal or the cut to federal funding for certain projects. We’ve seen this, for major infrastructure projects in New York and Chicago, and also for clean energy projects in at least 16 other states to date.

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Second, the President has announced that there are likely to be further personnel cuts to federal agencies. At this time, those agencies have not been named specifically. However, taking into account current executive priorities and the cuts made to federal agencies earlier this year, we might surmise that these are agencies that will be related to civilian, regulatory or science matters.

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However, this remains to be seen. So what does this mean for businesses? Well, like any shutdown, this largely puts a pause on the government processes that interact with businesses. However, unlike a typical shutdown, whose effects would be temporary, this shutdown will have a reshaping effect on the federal government.

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This means that many sources of federal funding or federal processes may not resume after the shutdown is resolved. And this will have a big impact on which industries will be able to grow and which will find this more difficult in the post shutdown period.

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For right now, in addition to the practical problems created by this shutdown, there’s also this large uncertainty, in a situation which is very high stakes and increasingly volatile. So what can businesses do to mitigate?

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Well, they can strengthen cash reserves, they can look beyond federal contracts, and they can stay alert to policy shifts, so that they can quickly adjust if funding or regulations change. In short, they can be prepared, they can keep an eye on the situation and be prepared for the possibility of a long term disruptive change.

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Hello everyone. Thank you for joining. My name is James Burr and I’m the Senior Regional Analyst for Europe Caucuses and Central Asia. I want to give you a quick briefing on an ongoing security risk, rising antisemitic violence across Europe with a focus on the recent attack outside the synagogue to the north of Manchester in the UK.

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On October 2 during Yom Kippur A car ramming and stabbing outside the Heaton Park Hebrew Congregation killed two worshippers and injured several others. This was the most severe antisemitic attack in Europe so far this year, and authorities immediately labeled it an act of terrorism.

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The timing on the holiest day in the Jewish calendar underscored the deliberate symbolic nature of the violence. But this isn’t an isolated event. Since the onset of the Gaza war in 2023, we’ve seen a surge in antisemitic violence, vandalism and intimidation across Europe.

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And this trend has continued as we approach the second anniversary of that conflict erupting. In the UK alone, there are about 1,500 incidents recorded in just the first half of this year, an extremely high figure. France and Germany are also seeing similar patterns with attacks on synagogues, schools, Jewish leaders and cultural sites being reported this year.

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Even smaller Jewish communities like those in Switzerland are being targeted. So why does this matter now? The Manchester attack highlights how antisemitic sentiments are manifested in acts of targeted violence. It also raises the risk of copycat incidents, particularly around Jewish holidays, or at high profile institutions.

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Security services are responding with stronger patrols, but the overall threat environment remains elevated and geographically dispersed across much of Europe. For businesses or institutions directly impacted by these antisemitic attacks on their premises or in the vicinity, there are several implications.

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Operations may be disrupted by lockdowns and road closures near attack sites. There are also knock on effects for supply chains, corporate travel security, insurance costs and even legal liability if firms fail to meet duty of care obligations.

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Looking ahead, we assess with moderate to high confidence that antisemitic violence will stay elevated across Europe into 2026, with spikes during Jewish holidays and at moments of geopolitical tension. So what can organizations do? A few key resilience measures include upgrading site security, running vehicle ramming and active attacker drills, using real-time intelligence and alerting systems, and strengthening communication plans.

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Partnerships with local law enforcement and geo security organizations are also critical, as are reviews of insurance and legal protections. In short, this is a sustained and regional trend that businesses and communities alike are encouraged to prepare for, not just an isolated crisis.