Full transcript
[00:04.9]
Hello, my name is Benjamin Olson, Regional Analyst for Sub Saharan Africa on Everbridge’s Global Insight Team and today I want to draw your attention to the tight post election environment taking place in Uganda where President Yoweri Museveni has been declared the winner for a seventh term.
[00:21.3]
The vote is over but key issues do remain unresolved. The opposition has rejected the results. Security forces do maintain heavy presence in urban areas and information access has been constrained for organizations. This is no longer about election day security but about post election risk.
[00:39.8]
In summary, the incumbent government has declared victory, the opposition is disputing the outcome and is calling for public mobilization on the streets. The main opposition leader Bobby vine, has gone into hiding due to security concerns. Fatalities have been reported alongside heightened rhetoric from senior security figures on social media.
[01:01.4]
Security postures do remain elevated and communication disruption tactics including Internet blackouts and social media restrictions have been put in place. The combination has created a controlled but sensitive environment where even a small incident here can trigger localized disruptions.
[01:20.2]
Historically based on Uganda’s past elections and renewal trends in East Africa, most likely path forward here is not a nationwide unrest, but episodic localized disruption that includes short notice protests, rapid crowd control operations and temporary movement and access restrictions.
[01:40.3]
These will likely persist for weeks beyond the election even as daily life largely continues. What happens in Uganda matters beyond its borders. The country sits along a critical east trade and transit corridor linking Kenya’s ports to Rwanda, South Sudan and the drc.
[01:59.2]
Even localized instability can disrupt regional logistics and cross border movements with most direct exposure to mineral trade including gold and copper, with downstream implications for manufacturing, luxury goods and commodity finance.
[02:14.9]
Agriculture supply chains, coffee and tea are also exposed to these delays driven by trucking, import disruption, potential border closures and communication outages. Disruption here does not need to be widespread to affect the global supply chain, timeability and reliability.
[02:33.7]
For companies, the risk here is operational duty of care, exposure of staff mobility, trans disruptions from checkpoints or security operations, community challenges affecting accountability and response, delays in logistics compliance, screening, insurance coverage.
[02:51.9]
This is where preparation will matter for future elections. The key takeaway from all this organizations should be have flexible movement planning, redundant communications, clear staff accountability protocol and monitor constantly urban flashpoints and trade corridor disruptions.
[03:12.7]
Uganda here is not an outlier, it’s a reference case building on patterns seen in 2025 for how elections across Sub Saharan Africa are increasingly shaping risks. After the ballots are casts in 2026 we’re going to have multiple African countries holding elections.
[03:31.9]
They will include the Republic of Congo, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Guinea Bissau Cabo Verde, Sao Tomen, Principe, Zambia, South Sudan, the Gambia, and South Africa. Thank you so much for your attention.
