The era of sporadic risk is over. Organizations now operate in a security landscape where vulnerabilities are constant, interconnected, and increasingly complex. What once appeared as distinct categories – geopolitics, extreme weather, cyberattacks, and civil unrest – are now converging. This creates a compound threat environment where a single disruption in one region can trigger cascading effects across global supply chains, digital infrastructure, and workforce safety.
For security leaders and risk managers, this shift demands a fundamental change in strategy. To ensure business continuity and to safeguard their people, leaders must adopt a broader perspective, extending their focus beyond immediate geographic boundaries. Anticipating global patterns before they escalate into full-blown crises has become a critical imperative.
Based on insights from the Everbridge 2026 Regional threat assessment, this post breaks down the critical geographic trends shaping the global security landscape. We examine where threats are intensifying and how they will likely impact your organization.
North America: Polarization and policy volatility
In 2026, the risk environment in North America is defined by a volatile mix of domestic polarization and policy uncertainty. In the United States and Canada, domestic extremism remains a persistent concern. Unlike traditional organized threats, this risk is often decentralized and fueled by rapid online mobilization. This dynamic drastically reduces warning times for security teams. The threat landscape has expanded beyond government targets to include corporate leaders, public-facing facilities, and critical infrastructure.
Simultaneously, governance and policy uncertainty create a challenging operational environment. Debates over federal authority and regulatory scope are leading to uneven policy conditions across jurisdictions. For organizations operating across multiple states or provinces, this friction increases the likelihood of administrative delays and inconsistent enforcement.
Economic volatility adds another layer of complexity. Tariff uncertainty and elevated borrowing costs constrain the ability of businesses to absorb sudden cost shifts. When you combine these factors with an increasingly aggressive cyber landscape, where threat actors use AI to accelerate attacks, the potential for compound disruption is high.
Strategic takeaway: Organizations must plan for limited warning times. Priorities should include strengthening protective intelligence for executives and facilities, and stress-testing continuity plans against both power instability and cyber-physical spillover.
Europe: Hybrid warfare and infrastructure stress
Europe enters 2026 under sustained strategic pressure. The war in Ukraine continues to shape the security environment far beyond the front lines. Hybrid pressure, including cyber operations, sabotage, and disinformation, remains a defining feature of the threat landscape for EU and NATO member states.
Critical infrastructure is a primary target. Power grids, undersea cables, transport corridors, and energy generation assets face constant scrutiny from state and non-state actors. Even “partial degradation” of these systems can produce cascading effects across finance, cloud services, and communications.
Domestic factors also contribute to elevated risk. Countries facing fiscal constraints and electoral dynamics, are likely to see episodic but high-impact protest activity. Transport networks are especially vulnerable, as localized interference can propagate quickly through interconnected rail and freight systems. Furthermore, climate stress repeatedly tests systems, with extreme heat and drought straining power generation and logistics.
Strategic takeaway: Shift planning from singular crises to intermittent, consequential disruption. Focus on building resilience against sabotage of critical dependencies and integrate heat/drought thresholds into your workforce planning.
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Asia-Pacific: Strategic competition and the “incident economy”
The Asia-Pacific region is characterized by strategic competition and climate vulnerability. In East Asia, the corridor between China, Taiwan, and Japan remains a focal point. Military signaling and blockade-style exercises create an environment where supply availability and cross-border mobility face constant uncertainty.
In Southeast Asia, maritime coercion in the South China Sea is generating an “incident economy.” Frequent close encounters increase the risk of accidents that could escalate tensions rapidly. This results in shipping delays, insurance volatility, and compliance risks that can tighten operating assumptions with very little notice.
Compounding these geopolitical risks is the reality of climate-driven disruption. Storm clustering has reduced recovery windows, leaving logistics corridors fragile. Even moderate weather events can now trigger outsized disruptions due to degraded infrastructure and cumulative stress.
Strategic takeaway: Prepare for repeatable, short-notice disruptions across logistics and digital services. Resilience planning must emphasize alternate routing, supplier options, and the ability to operate through degraded connectivity.
Middle East and North Africa: Layered escalation risk
Unresolved conflicts and shifting power balances define the 2026 outlook for the Middle East and North Africa. Escalation risk remains elevated across multiple theaters. In the Levant, conflicts create a risk of renewed escalation that could affect airspace and maritime routes.
Across the Gulf, a firmer U.S. security umbrella provides deterrence but tests economic models. High defense spending and ambitious diversification agendas create a complex mix of opportunity and risk. Meanwhile, Iran presents a dual-risk environment, facing internal instability from fiscal strain while engaging in regional asymmetric operations.
For organizations, the challenge is managing “layered risk.” Security escalation often overlaps with economic tightening and political disruption.
Strategic takeaway: Key priorities include airspace and maritime contingency planning. Organizations must also maintain financial flexibility in environments where payment, tax, and regulatory conditions can shift quickly.
Latin America: Organized crime and compliance pressure
In Latin America and the Caribbean, 2026 risk is shaped heavily by organized crime and rising compliance pressure.
Mexico’s security environment is becoming more violent and legally consequential. Criminal groups are innovating tactically, using drones and intimidation along key industrial corridors. This physical threat compounds compliance risks, as expanded sanctions enforcement heightens the potential for penalties against companies that rely on local logistics intermediaries.
Brazil and Peru face similar challenges, where criminal footprints link extractive economies to infrastructure disruption. Large-scale enforcement operations can disrupt highways and ports with limited notice. Additionally, digitally driven youth mobilization can scale rapidly, concentrating disruption in government districts and major transport arteries.
Strategic takeaway: Anticipate corridor-specific disruption driven by crime and enforcement. Effective mitigation requires enhanced due diligence, vendor controls, and secure journey management for your workforce.
Sub-Saharan Africa: Political volatility and resource corridors
Sub-Saharan Africa enters 2026 with elevated risks driven by dense election cycles and militant insurgencies. In parts of West Africa, coups and authoritarian consolidation are reshaping governance and regulatory conditions. This increases volatility for organizations navigating licensing and payments.
Militant Islamist networks in the Sahel are expanding their reach, often converging with criminal economies. This elevates risk across energy, mining, and logistics sectors. Meanwhile, the civil war in Sudan continues to destabilize the region, causing mass displacement and spillover effects into neighboring states.
In the Democratic Republic of Congo, the consolidation of territory by rebel groups introduces significant ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) and supply chain risks for industries reliant on key minerals like cobalt.
Strategic takeaway: Plan for episodic but severe disruptions tied to elections and conflict escalation. Strengthen duty-of-care procedures and diversify supply chains to mitigate the impact of sudden shifts in authority.
Conclusion
What does this complex landscape mean for your organization? The speed at which you can anticipate, assess, and adapt to global threats now represents a critical competitive advantage. Those who can navigate these disruptions without halting operations will seize market share and build trust with stakeholders.
The trends outlined in the Everbridge 2026 Regional threat assessment demonstrate that the challenges ahead may be significant, but they are navigable. By understanding the specific nuances of regional risks, you can position your organization to withstand shocks. With disciplined preparation and the right intelligence, your organization can operate with confidence, wherever you may operate.
