Full transcript
[00:08.4]
Hi, my name is Benjamin Olson with the Everbridge Global Insight team and in today's rapid Resilience briefing we're looking at the sharp escalation between Afghanistan and Pakistan over the past 24 hours. Tensions have been building since the Taliban returned to power in 2021.
[00:23.8]
Since then, Pakistan has repeatedly accused Kabul of tolerating or failing to control militant groups like Tariq e Taliban Pakistan or TTP who operate in the Afghani territory and do carry out strikes inside Pakistan over the past year that has led to repeated cycles of violence and fragile ceasefires between both countries, including one recently brokered in last October by Qatar and Turkey that has now ultimately collapsed.
[00:52.2]
Over the past several days, the situation has intensified. Beginning on February 22, Pakistan carried out airstrikes inside Afghanistan along the 2,600 kilometer Durand Line. Afghan authorities say they then retaliated on February 26 along the Pakistani border.
[01:10.3]
Pakistan now has escalated further by deploying fighter aircraft alongside artillery and ground strikes targeting military installations in Kabul, Kandahar and Pak T. Drone operations are continuing at this time between both sides hitting targets.
[01:27.9]
What makes this different than any other situation since 2021? The scope here? Pakistan appears to have now been targeting Taliban government military infrastructure, not just the alleged milita camps where the TTT operate, increasing the risks of sustained state level confrontation.
[01:46.2]
Pakistan Defense minister on social media has even described the situation as open war. The UN regional actors and other countries are calling for rapid de escalation at this time. However, however, fighting is still continuing.
[02:02.5]
Casualty figures do remain contested here as well. All we have is open sources and open sources do say 150 to 300 killed with possibly 450 wounded. But as of right now nothing is for certain just because of the volatility of the situation.
[02:19.1]
Civilian deaths are not reported in, only a few injuries. But once again we don't know. Everything is very limited. For most Western firms, direct exposure to Afghanistan is limited. The greater concern here is the spillover into Pakistan.
[02:36.2]
The Torqham border crossing, a key trade choke point between Afghanistan and Pakistan is being affected. There have been past claims of weeks and months of cargo being stuck at the border and that is likely going to happen too. Pakistan though is more integrated into the global supply chains which export textiles to North America and Europe, agricultural goods like rice and a significant share of world surgical instruments.
[03:03.4]
Escalation here also raises the duty of care concern for personnel in country. Air travel is another secondary risk. If airlines decide to reroute to avoid the area, expect longer flight times, higher cost and potential delays especially between the Europe and South Asia sectors.
[03:23.6]
Near term we are continuing to expect tit for tat strikes on both sides, possible temporary border closures and renewed mediation efforts. The key risk here is miscalculation particularly if strikes expand towards major cities or infrastructure within Pakistan.
[03:40.9]
So what should organizations be doing right now? Well there are a few things. Reassess travel and duty of care protocol for Pakistan, validate crisis communication and response plans, stress test supply chains and identify alternative sourcing where possible and review insurance and compliance screening and escalating triggers.
[04:01.7]
In short out of all of this this is the most serious Afghanistan Pakistan confrontation in years but it does remain regionally concentrated. Most western firms do not face direct exposure here though it does need to be noted that contingency planning is prudent for those with personnel or suppliers in Pakistan.
[04:22.4]
Everbridge and the Global Insight team will continue to monitor and provide updates as the risk landscape evolves and changes as this event continues to proceed. Thank you so much.
