Full transcript
[00:05.3]
Hello, my name is Christian Robles and I am the regional analyst for Latin America and the Caribbean here at Everbridge. Today we’re tracking fast moving developments of Venezuela following a major US military operation that has triggered political uncertainty, internal changes and broader regional ripple effects.
[00:25.7]
During the early morning hours of January 3rd, the United States carried out Operation Absolute Resolve. The strikes targeted military and communications sites and Venezuelan authorities later reported damage at or near strategic infrastructure including La Guaira port, where local officials said missiles destroyed warehouses and caused significant disruption.
[00:49.9]
According to Venezuelan and Cuban officials, more than 80 people were killed, including 32 Cuban military and intelligence personnel. Cuba confirmed the deaths, stating that those personnel were assigned to Venezuela under bilateral security cooperation and were killed during combat and bombardment.
[01:10.6]
The outcome of the operation was unprecedented. President Nicolas Maduro and his wife Celia Flores were captured and flown to the United States. And on January 5th both appeared at A Manhattan Federal court and pleaded not guilty to drug trafficking charges while Maduro told the court he had been kidnapped.
[01:35.4]
From this point forward, uncertainty is the defining feature. US messaging towards Venezuela’s interim leadership has been mixed, reinforcing ambiguity around the path ahead. President Donald Trump has publicly stated that the United States could effectively run Venezuela until a transition is achieved, framing US objectives in a way that includes leveraging the country’s oil sector.
[02:07.1]
At the same time, senior U.S. officials have indicated that they expect cooperation from Acting President Delsey Rodriguez with warnings reported that failure to cooperate could result in consequences even worse than Maduro.
[02:23.5]
In parallel, Secretary of State Marco Rubio has sought to narrow that message, emphasizing coercive leverage aimed at producing democratically elected transition rather than day to day US Governance. Rubio has also argued that Venezuela’s next leader should ultimately be determined through free elections, particularly given disputes over the legitimacy of Maduro’s 2024 electoral victory, which the United States and several other countries never recognized.
[02:58.9]
Meanwhile, in Venezuela, the Maduro aligned state structure remains in place. The country’s judicial system directed Del Rodriguez to assume executive authority. She has publicly demanded Maduro’s release while also signaling interest in diplomatic engagement.
[03:17.1]
Also adding to the uncertainty, Venezuela has declared a state of emergency. While there have been no confirmed reports of curfews, the emergency framework increases the likelihood of movement, restrictions, communication disruptions and expanded security operations.
[03:33.8]
The decree also authorizes the detention of individuals accused of supporting the US attack, raising near term repression risks. On the ground, pro regime mobilization is already visible. Reporting describes pro government rallies, some involving armed participants, including groups known as colectivos, which are motorcycle based networks that have historically functioned as informal enforcement arms aligned with the state.
[04:03.7]
This raises the risk that even with Maduro removed, localized violence or parallel security actions could complicate any transition and keep security conditions in Caracas at the regional level.
[04:19.5]
Neighboring governments are closely monitoring border dynamics to limit spillover. While borders remain largely open, heightened security postures and the potential for checkpoints or inspections could disrupt Cross border trademark logistics and migration flows.
[04:36.5]
If conditions deteriorate beyond the region, the strategic implications are significant. Internationally, the operation is raising concerns about precedent. Even as Washington frames the action as law enforcement or counternarcotics, critics argue it challenges norms around sovereignty and territorial integrity.
[05:00.2]
If normalized, this could lower the threshold for other states to justify similar cross border operations, increasing global instability. For Russia and China, Venezuela’s upheaval represents a strategic setback. Both invested heavily in Venezuela as a key partner in the Western Hemisphere.
[05:20.5]
While condemning the operation, they may now seek to reinforce influence elsewhere, including in East Asia, Africa, and the Middle East. As the United States signals renewed focus in regions nearby, we will continue to monitor developments closely, including the security environment in Caracas, emergency measures, border and trade implications, and evolving geopolitical responses.
[05:47.5]
The Global Insights Team Team will publish relevant updates as new confirmed information becomes available.
