Full transcript
[00:05.1]
Hey, everybody. Good afternoon. My name is Adam DeLuca. I’m the director of Risk Intelligence here at Everbridge. I’m joined by Caitlin Gillespie, our chief of meteorology. How you doing, Caitlyn? Hey, Adam. Thanks so much for having me. I’m doing really well. Excellent. So as everybody knows, the World cup starts here in about two weeks.
[00:23.6]
And it’s on everybody’s mind, not just because it’s a great event and it’s going to provide a lot of entertainment over the summer months where there’s not a lot of sports on, but it also is going to bring a lot of risks and highlight a lot of vulnerabilities for organizations, you know, nationwide.
[00:39.2]
And one of those is, obviously weather, is very topical on everybody’s mind right now. You know, with 16 host cities spread across the United States, Canada and Mexico, it’s kind of an unprecedented event in the way it’s set up logistically. But what are some of the major weather patterns that we typically see during June and July?
[00:57.9]
And kind of what host regions concern you most from a weather perspective? And what can you actually confidently say today, two weeks out? Sure. And I’ll tell you, Adam, I mean, really, June and July are some of the most operationally complex weather months across North America because we’re transitioning into peak summer, heat, thunderstorm activity, tropical moisture, wildfire season.
[01:22.0]
So the challenge for the World cup is the size of the footprint. The weather risk profile looks very different in Dallas than it does Vancouver, Toronto, Mexico City. So starting in the southern United States, especially that southern tier, the primary concern is extreme heat combined with high humidity.
[01:41.4]
Those considerations and conditions can create significant health and operational challenges for spectators, staff, transportation systems, medical and public safety agencies. Also today, June 1, is the kickoff of the Atlantic hurricane season.
[01:59.0]
So even when the Atlantic is on the quieter side, let’s knock on wood for a second, we still have to account for tropical moisture, heavy rainfall, travel disruption, supply chain impacts, and the possibility of short notice homegrown tropical systems near the Gulf or Southeast coast, especially over the next two months, that’s really when we see that style of system.
[02:19.7]
We’re also watching the Eastern Pacific. That basin’s already showing signs of early areas of interest. So moisture from that region can influence parts of Mexico and at times even the Southwestern United States. So even systems that never directly affect a stadium city can still create rainfall, flooding, travel or logistics concerns.
[02:40.8]
So frequent thunderstorms, another major concern. These storms produce lightning, heavy rainfall, local flooding, short notice disruptions. And lightning, of course, really remains one of the leading causes of event interruption because it forces that immediate shelter decision with little notice.
[02:57.4]
Oftentimes, in Mexico, Monterey, we can experience, of course, the summer heat, but Guadalajara and Mexico City, we’re at elevation. Urban heat, lightning, heavy rainfall, and large population concentrations also play that role. So, you know, in moving into Canada, while temperatures may not reach that same extreme levels, the southern United States heat can really be a concern because those, those large outdoor gatherings, and urban environments can increase that heat stress, especially in populations that are less acclimatized, to prolonged heat.
[03:29.8]
So what I can confidently say today is that heat is certainly our highest weather confidence concern and signal heading into the tournament. The exact timing of thunderstorms, tropical systems, or any of those wildfire smoke episodes, those become clear as we move closer towards individual match windows.
[03:47.9]
But for resilience perspective, the cities that concern me the most are not necessarily the hottest cities, but the cities where weather hazards intersect with large populations, transportation networks that are complex, critical infrastructure, and just overall event operations.
[04:04.9]
that’s a lot of interesting points there, Caitlin. And I think, you know, you touched on it a couple weeks out. You know, we can anticipate thunderstorms or things that, you know, we know heat is gonna, gonna be a factor, not just for the people playing it, but the people organizing it and some of these events surrounding it. So if you were advising FIFA today, let’s say, you know, would heat be your number one weather concern?
[04:25.2]
Because you know, we talked about the heat. Obviously, thunderstorms, lightning could cause shelter in place, tropical storms, even wildfires. Right. Like, we didn’t really touch on that. What would you mostly focused on if you’re an organization? No, I love this question. And of course, yes, heat, I think, remains that number one concern because it’s the most widespread, it’s the most persistent, and just the overall, just most complex risk across our tournament.
[04:52.3]
A thunderstorm or tropical system that can affect one city for a limited period of time, it kind of has that expiration time. Right. But he can affect multiple host cities simultaneously and persist for days or weeks. So the challenge for us is really not just a single hot day.
[05:08.0]
It’s the cumulative strain that develops over time. The conversation focuses mainly, of course, on the athletes and match conditions. But from a holistic resilience perspective and standpoint, the concern is much broader. Heat can impact spectators, security personnel, transportation workers, volunteers, the medical teams, and even the broadcasters waiting, in the queues and the venue staff.
[05:31.1]
So while simultaneously increasing the demand on energy systems, transportation networks, healthcare resources, and public safety operations. And especially if our overnight temperatures remain warm, there’s also the less opportunity for people, buildings and infrastructure to recover.
[05:48.8]
Heat really creates that, potential for both resource fatigue and warning fatigue. Medical personnel or public safety agencies and transportation ops, the venue staff and security, they all may be operating under that elevated stress for extended periods, but there’s also the risk of warning fatigue.
[06:07.4]
So where the repeated heat advisories, extreme heat warnings, that can lead people to become less responsive to the message, even as the operational risk certainly remains elevated. And so maintaining that effective communication, preserving that sense of urgency, becomes just as important as monitoring the weather itself.
[06:26.5]
So that said, like you mentioned, heat’s not the only concern. Lightning remains that hazard that’s the most likely to trigger that immediate operational disruption. It can force rapid sheltering. But heat rises to the top for me, and quite literally, scientifically, as the hazard is most likely to affect the broadcast, the broadest range of people, locations and operations at the same, same time.
[06:49.0]
Yeah, you know, I think you touched on the key point. For me, it’s the effect heat can have over a prolonged period of time on infrastructure. Okay, so like the healthcare system is going to be strained. Obviously, heat over a prolonged period of time has a real serious impact on energy and providing, you know, what that looks like to millions and millions of individuals, around the country.
[07:10.9]
So you know, how heat affects infrastructure and the strain it puts on it over a tournament of this length is going to be something that obviously organizations are going to really need to keep an eye on. But if you are an organization, you are supporting the World cup, whether that’s a sponsor, logistics provider, security teams, corporate travelers, what can they do to improve their operating posture and limit some of the safety issues that heat and thunderstorms can have, leading up to the matches?
[07:39.7]
Yes, absolutely. And get to put the emergency manager hat back on. Organizations that perform the best during these major events are not necessarily the ones with the best forecast. They are the ones with the best decision making process tied to the forecast.
[07:55.1]
So a couple of things, you know. Number one, establish weather thresholds and predefined actions well before the tournament begins. Don’t wait for the heat advisory, the lightning threat or that air quality alert to decide what you’re going to do. Identify the conditions that matter, the impacts that they create and the actions that you’re going to take when those thresholds are reached.
[08:16.6]
Second, focus on protecting people. Heat mitigation plans, hydration strategies, cooling areas, your workforce rotation schedule, and your medical surge planning should all be established before match day. So protecting personnel ultimately protects operations.
[08:34.1]
Identify those critical dependencies. I like this point. Because weather rarely creates the biggest disruption directly. The larger disruptions occurs when weather affects a dependency. So transportation, staffing, communications, power supply chains or public safety.
[08:51.4]
So organizations, we should be asking what happens if transportation is delayed? What happens if power reliability is affected? What happens if air quality deteriorates or if a venue or fan zone has to temporarily shelter in place? What happens if our deliveries or staffing or executive movement are disrupted?
[09:09.8]
So understanding these downstream impacts is essential to maintain that continuity aspect, increase our monitoring as our event approaches. Our seasonal outlooks that we discussed in our awesome webinar last month, those provide great strategic awareness. But operational decisions should now start to rely on the shorter range forecast and real time intelligence.
[09:31.1]
So as we move into like that five to seven day, but certainly within that 72 hour window, organizations start to shift from planning mode into that operational readiness, and maintaining that common operating picture. The most resilient organizations are those where security teams, logistics providers, venue operators, emergency managers and the public safety folks.
[09:53.4]
We are all operating from the same picture, with the same information. And so when our stakeholders are sharing information quickly and consistently, they can make those decisions before small disruptions become the large operational problems. At the end of the day, weather intelligence really only creates value when it informs action.
[10:13.4]
So the organization that, that performs the best are the ones that really connect weather information to decisions early enough to stay ahead of a curve. Right. I think you touched on a couple really important mitigation strategies that highlight and kind of separate what successful organizations do and then, what some organizations might get caught off guard.
[10:33.6]
One is scenario planning. You know, we talked about it on the webinar, a month ago, with, with the planners out in Los Angeles talking about how important it is to, to plan for scenarios and exercise with your people so you know how to make those decisions. When something does go wrong, you know, it just shows how important it is that flexibility and then also identifying your unacceptable consequences, you know, due to weather, you know, it is, it can be unpredictable.
[11:00.1]
But, you know, if you’re identifying your unacceptable consequences and your risk regime register, you understand how we can start to prioritize and approach risk and become more resilient. So, you know, I, I do want to say thanks for joining us today, Caitlin. It’s always a pleasure to get to talk to you. Who you got in the tournament? Who are you rooting for?
[11:17.2]
I mean, of course, Team usa. I’m rocking with them. Absolutely. How about you? How about you? Well, you know, I’m not too confident in their, in their chances this year, but I am an American through and through, will be rooting for the United States, win or lose. But just looking for an exciting tournament and some good entertainment and hopefully everybody can stay safe from the weather and all the other risks, that kind of come up due to an event of this size.
[11:41.8]
So Everbridge will continue to report on any and all risks and vulnerabilities associated with the World cup, both forward leaning and strategically as well as tactically during the tournament. So, Caitlin, thanks again for joining us. Talk to you soon. Thank you so much.
