Full transcript

[00:04.9]
Hi, I'm Zach Nelson, manager of the Global Insights team here at Everbridge and I'm joined by Zsolt Csepregi, our regional analyst for the Middle east and North Africa. Zsolt, thanks so much for joining us today. Hello. So today we're going to talk about the conflict in Iran which has already come to embroil much of the wider region.

[00:24.2]
So Zsolt, at a high level, could you catch us up on what's happened so far and what would you say are you know, some of the biggest, most important developments for the last 24 to 72 hours? Sure. So on Saturday February 26th the United States and Israel launched a joint military operation against Iran.

[00:43.2]
Now immediately after the initial strikes that also killed the Supreme Leader of Iran, Iran has used a massive region wide retaliation strategy, to try to promote its position in the military conflict.

[01:00.3]
And that meant that it didn't only retaliate against US forces in the region and Israel, but also launching a widespread missile and drone operation against neighboring Gulf and other Arab states including Jordan, Iraq.

[01:18.6]
And this means that we are looking at a very complex operational picture. So I think that the most important to note here is that Iran is now unleashed in the way that their Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which is the force, it's not the army, it's much stronger than the Iranian army is holding the launch buttons literally to the missile and drone capabilities of the Iranian state.

[01:52.8]
And they are trying to push this war from them being attacked by the joint US and Israeli forces into something more region wide and trying to engulf the whole region into this war.

[02:08.6]
So actually this is a race against the clock. And what it's also important to note is that the Iranian Foreign Minister was who said yesterday that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is acting independently and isolated.

[02:25.2]
So that means that that is the force that that is driving the escalation ladder in this conflict. And that's why we are seeing all kinds of impacts against Gulf energy infrastructure. Airports, civilian sites, hotels are being attacked by the Revolutionary Guard.

[02:42.5]
So while this is not the worst case scenario of escalating that the that the analysts were planning before the, before the attack, before the before this attack was launched after weeks of preparation.

[03:00.2]
But still it's a, it's a very critical, dangerous situation that we're having. Right. So let's talk a little bit More about, possible escalation pathways. Right. We know, Iran has a network of, you know, proxy militant groups as allies, right?

[03:17.7]
Hezbollah and Lebanon, the Houthis. And a concern that some people have raised is the potential for, asymmetric retaliation. Right. We've, you know, seen news of, of plots in the past, high profile assassinations, that Iran has been involved in in recent years.

[03:36.6]
What forms do you think retaliation or, you know, escalation could, could potentially take? So I would highlight immediately that what Iran is right now doing is already asymmetric because the US and the Israeli forces are targeting military sites, governmental sites, nuclear facilities, and the domestic, security forces bases inside Iran.

[04:00.8]
But the Iranian Revolutionary Guard is targeting, as I said, energy infrastructure, ports, airports. So, completely different type of set of targets than the US and the Israeli forces are targeting. So this is already an asymmetric conflict.

[04:16.4]
But referring to what you just mentioned about proxies, sure, the Iranian proxies can do, a similar, or follow a similar strategy that the Revolutionary Guard Corps is doing right now.

[04:32.0]
But what we have seen in the last days that Iran's so called proxies, and I'm saying so called because right now we're seeing that they are not real proxies because they are more worried about their own survival than actually entering into this war, in a decisive manner on behalf of Iran.

[04:50.4]
So Hezbollah, a day ago had, three rockets initially launched at, Israel. But Israel has launched a major operation in Lebanon and also now ground troops are pushing forward, in Lebanon. So Hezbollah doesn't really have a space to, to escalate much further, especially that the Lebanese government is also trying to, to, to crack down on Hezbollah activity.

[05:13.3]
I think the biggest question right now is whether the Houthis in Yemen will enter the fight because they can open an additional front threatening the Bab El Mandeb Strait. That means the Red Sea, transportation and, by that the, Suez Canal, the security of, crossing the Suez Canal.

[05:33.3]
And they can also open a southern front against, Saudi Arabia. But right now, after four days, they have not joined the war. They are probably afraid of additional forces allied with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates who are present in Yemen.

[05:50.8]
But that is the biggest, escalation driver that can happen apart from Iran itself. Iran stepping up, it's already asymmetric and region wide, retaliation strikes. Right. So if we look outside, you know, the immediate theater of operations, we've seen a, lot of protest activities, street mobilizations, demonstrations crop up all over the world really. Right.

[06:17.9]
In response to this, in the Middle east, in Europe we've seen some in the United States here. What's your assessment of the protest landscape globally? Yes. So the protest landscape is much different than what would have been a, year ago, because of the violent crackdown on the Iranian protest in January 2026.

[06:39.5]
So the Iranian regime doesn't really have a lot of supporters internationally. So we are seeing much less protests and demonstrations on behalf of the Iranian regime than what we would have if this war has erupted, would have erupted, a few months ago.

[06:59.8]
That said, there are not so much pro Iran protests internationally, but anti war type of, mobilizations. I think that these are right now very small scale. But they need to be monitored.

[07:15.5]
They invest on capitals and major cities. Sure. In the Middle east there are, I wouldn't say pro Iran, but more like anti American and anti Israeli protest from Baghdad to major Pakistani cities. Islamabad, Karachi, Lahore, and Bahrain can be a significant spot in northeastern Saudi Arabia where these protests can happen.

[07:40.9]
I would say that right now the protest landscape is much lower than what could have been expected before such a major military operation was launched against Iran. That said protest can be a vehicle for extremist actors to carry out their attacks.

[08:00.2]
So that's why it's not the protests themselves which are the major threats. They can be disruptive, they can disrupt transportation, they can create some kind of a friction in downtown areas, worldwide. But the biggest threat is lone wolf attackers and also extremist small groups and cells using the protest to get close to their target.

[08:25.3]
Right. Well, let's let's turn to the cyber front. Whenever we see a conflict like this pick up, there's often someone accompanying cyber activity. What do you think we're in store for here? Should we expect cyber targeting of companies or infrastructure or government services?

[08:43.5]
What do you foresee on that front? Most of it's already ongoing and actually it has been ongoing for a month. So the cyber environment of this US Iran, Israeli Iran, let's say competition, but more like cyber conflict has been going on for years.

[09:01.0]
So what we can see is an elevated level of cyber threats. Especially as the regime forces are running out of other options. So what they will have is relying more on their missiles and drones and also trying to create disruptions in the cyber realm.

[09:21.6]
I would say that the most endangered areas of companies are on the two ends of the spectrum. Either if they are for example energy companies or telecommunications companies, and by attacking them, you can create a lot of disruptions and even threaten lives in for example even in the mainland United States.

[09:47.6]
The other end are more soft targets where you can deliver a message to the population that you want to influence. So I would even envision delivery services, apps on your phone being hacked in the coming days and trying to get some upsetting message out.

[10:08.4]
So soft targets that Since the most energy is going into defending critical infrastructure and all the it establishment behind that, so what the attackers will do is try to shift to the.

[10:26.8]
To the more soft targets but where they can create an outsized effect. Right? And going off of that. Let's talk you know, economic impact more broadly. Right? You know, fuel prices, supply chain disruptions, shipping risks. What do you think that companies you know, in the near term should be planning for and expecting.

[10:49.1]
In the near term, the biggest challenge is not I would say the actual damage that that can happen to the energy infrastructure in the Gulf, but the trust that this damage can be fixed quickly.

[11:08.4]
Since prices are a matter of trust. I'm paying a certain amount of money for something because I trust that even tomorrow I can buy the same thing. We can see that with the current elevation in the oil and gas prices on the world market, that most of the traders think that these disruptions are not going to be They're not going to last for months.

[11:34.0]
They might experience a supply chain disruption for weeks but not months and definitely not years. If that trust is eroding, then we're not speaking about for example in terms of the price of crude oil.

[11:52.6]
We're not talking about 80 or 100 US Dollars for a barrel of Brent oil on the global market. But we are more talking about 130 or even higher prices. But that's a matter of trust.

[12:08.6]
And I would say that right now, most of the market is assured that this conflict will end in a few weeks, four or five weeks or at least the main impact, and not longer.

[12:26.5]
If that calculation changes that, then that can create a spiral out effect on prices and that would create inflation and other Economic disruptions in the world market. Right. Something else we've seen is, a lot of airport closures throughout the region in the Gulf and elsewhere.

[12:47.6]
What are the top risk mitigation strategies that are steps that you might recommend right now for travelers who are either currently in the region or looking to transit through the region? Yes, I think that the biggest problem that after four days one can make with travel safety is thinking about the same mitigation step that everyone else is thinking about.

[13:11.5]
So we can often, right now, I would advise for any planning to go one step further than you would logically think that it's that it's required. So for example, if the first people who are booking their flights outside of the region would probably choose Istanbul, Cairo or Mumbai to avoid, the core Middle east region and the Gulf, go one step forward, try traveling around the world in the other direction if that's possible for you.

[13:49.5]
So, maybe you will lose a few hours, but you will save yourself much more trouble and disruptions if you're getting caught up. Not in the region, not in a war fighting zone, because that's of course the most horrible scenario where you can find yourself.

[14:05.0]
But even just getting stuck at an airport where other tens or even hundreds of thousands of people are trying to pass through, in a very condensed, time period as this war is unfolding.

[14:21.7]
Right. Okay. And yeah. So, lastly here, let me just ask you, are there any other, you know, mitigation actions that you might recommend to companies more broadly as we're looking ahead over the next week or so? Anything for you know, security leaders, operations leadership, teams.

[14:38.0]
Anything else, that they should be keeping in mind or thinking about? Sure. So I think that the most important, and this cannot be repeated enough times, monitoring, like being up to date with what's actually happening. This is such a quickly, developing risk environment that we are now seeing in the Middle east with cascading effects on the board.

[14:59.4]
I just mentioned, the whole, issue with energy, prices and you mentioned travel implications. So as these effects are really rapidly, radiating out, in the, in the region and beyond, that's going to create huge, disruption. So monitoring.

[15:19.3]
The second is have multiple plans in place. Have, have a plan for all scenarios. We don't know how far the escalation will unfold. It's the qu. This is a, again as I said, a race against the clock. How far. The Revolutionary Guard will have the capabilities to launch missiles and rockets at the region, and whether proxies are joining the fight.

[15:44.3]
So have a scenario in place for all these eventualities. And the third thing, and this is really important, have also a playbook for all of them and have solid communication plans who's speaking to whom. Once we see for example that the Houthis have actually joined the fight and they are trying to close shipping, in the Red Sea, and then what the company or the stakeholder has to do.

[16:12.4]
So have those three things monitoring scenarios and the playbook in place for the coming days and weeks because this is going to get long and it's going to get worse before it gets better. Zsolt Csepregi, thank you so much for joining us and for sharing your expertise.

[16:30.0]
Thank you very much.

Full transcript

[00:08.4]
Hi, my name is Benjamin Olson with the Everbridge Global Insight team and in today's rapid Resilience briefing we're looking at the sharp escalation between Afghanistan and Pakistan over the past 24 hours. Tensions have been building since the Taliban returned to power in 2021.

[00:23.8]
Since then, Pakistan has repeatedly accused Kabul of tolerating or failing to control militant groups like Tariq e Taliban Pakistan or TTP who operate in the Afghani territory and do carry out strikes inside Pakistan over the past year that has led to repeated cycles of violence and fragile ceasefires between both countries, including one recently brokered in last October by Qatar and Turkey that has now ultimately collapsed.

[00:52.2]
Over the past several days, the situation has intensified. Beginning on February 22, Pakistan carried out airstrikes inside Afghanistan along the 2,600 kilometer Durand Line. Afghan authorities say they then retaliated on February 26 along the Pakistani border.

[01:10.3]
Pakistan now has escalated further by deploying fighter aircraft alongside artillery and ground strikes targeting military installations in Kabul, Kandahar and Pak T. Drone operations are continuing at this time between both sides hitting targets.

[01:27.9]
What makes this different than any other situation since 2021? The scope here? Pakistan appears to have now been targeting Taliban government military infrastructure, not just the alleged milita camps where the TTT operate, increasing the risks of sustained state level confrontation.

[01:46.2]
Pakistan Defense minister on social media has even described the situation as open war. The UN regional actors and other countries are calling for rapid de escalation at this time. However, however, fighting is still continuing.

[02:02.5]
Casualty figures do remain contested here as well. All we have is open sources and open sources do say 150 to 300 killed with possibly 450 wounded. But as of right now nothing is for certain just because of the volatility of the situation.

[02:19.1]
Civilian deaths are not reported in, only a few injuries. But once again we don't know. Everything is very limited. For most Western firms, direct exposure to Afghanistan is limited. The greater concern here is the spillover into Pakistan.

[02:36.2]
The Torqham border crossing, a key trade choke point between Afghanistan and Pakistan is being affected. There have been past claims of weeks and months of cargo being stuck at the border and that is likely going to happen too. Pakistan though is more integrated into the global supply chains which export textiles to North America and Europe, agricultural goods like rice and a significant share of world surgical instruments.

[03:03.4]
Escalation here also raises the duty of care concern for personnel in country. Air travel is another secondary risk. If airlines decide to reroute to avoid the area, expect longer flight times, higher cost and potential delays especially between the Europe and South Asia sectors.

[03:23.6]
Near term we are continuing to expect tit for tat strikes on both sides, possible temporary border closures and renewed mediation efforts. The key risk here is miscalculation particularly if strikes expand towards major cities or infrastructure within Pakistan.

[03:40.9]
So what should organizations be doing right now? Well there are a few things. Reassess travel and duty of care protocol for Pakistan, validate crisis communication and response plans, stress test supply chains and identify alternative sourcing where possible and review insurance and compliance screening and escalating triggers.

[04:01.7]
In short out of all of this this is the most serious Afghanistan Pakistan confrontation in years but it does remain regionally concentrated. Most western firms do not face direct exposure here though it does need to be noted that contingency planning is prudent for those with personnel or suppliers in Pakistan.

[04:22.4]
Everbridge and the Global Insight team will continue to monitor and provide updates as the risk landscape evolves and changes as this event continues to proceed. Thank you so much.

Full transcript

[00:04.9]
Hello, my name is Wyatt Kinney. I'm the Asia Pacific Regional Analyst with the Everbridge Global Insights team. In this briefing, I'll provide an overview of the Bangladesh national elections coming up on February 12, 2026, with a focus on the political context and near term operational considerations.

[00:21.7]
To begin, here's a brief overview of the election. Bangladesh is scheduled to hold parliamentary elections in a national referendum on February 12, 2026. The vote will take place under the interim administration led by Chief Advisor Muhammad Yunus. The election and referendum are intended to support a return to parliamentary governance following political changes in 2024.

[00:43.2]
The pre election environment remains closely managed with elevated administrative coordination and security oversight. Turning to the political context shaping the election, the February 2026 elections are taking place under an interim administration. The current electoral fields include the Bangladesh Nationalist Party, also known as the bnp, the Jamaat e Islami Party and the National Citizen Party, also known as ncp.

[01:09.9]
Voter voters will take part in a referendum on the July Charter which outlines proposed governance reforms. International observation missions, including from the European Union are present to monitor the process. Next, I'll touch on security conditions and political activity during the election period.

[01:29.0]
Election periods in Bangladesh are typically accompanied by increased political mobilization, expanded security force deployments, tighter controls around key locations. In the current cycle, authorities are, have emphasized preventative measures, rapid response to gatherings, protection of polling related infrastructure.

[01:50.2]
Recent incidents involving political figures, have contributed to a more cautious security posture. Increased monitoring of campaign events and demonstrations. Current indicators suggest activity related risks remain localized, primarily in like urban centers.

[02:07.9]
Disruption is more likely to take the form of movement restrictions and traffic controls than sustained civil unrest. Urban centers, particularly in daca, are expected to experience the most noticeable operational constraints during the election period.

[02:25.5]
Related to this, it's also important to address protest activity and urban disruption. DACA has experienced public demonstrations and labor related actions in the period leading up to the election. In response, authorities have implemented traffic controls and restricted zones near government facilities during the election period, primarily from February 11th through the 13th.

[02:49.7]
There's a high likelihood of, you know, localized road closures, delays to public services, general movement restrictions. Briefly I'll address the terrorism and extremism risk environments. Security assessments indicate an elevated but non, a non specific risk of opportunistic activity during the election period.

[03:11.6]
There is no confirmed reporting of an imminent or coordinated extremist plot. Any potential incidents would most likely involve low complexity methods and public or symbolic locations. For most organizations, this translates to general situational awareness rather than a targeted threat exposure.

[03:32.4]
Finally, there are important economic and trade considerations to keep in mind. Bangladesh plays a central role in global textile and apparel manufacturing, including logistics. Short term disruption could affect inland transport, port operations and custom administrative processes.

[03:52.0]
These impacts are expected to be time limited and operational rather than structural. Regional and global effects would most likely involve schedule variability, not supplied loss. The outlook so looking ahead to the immediate period around the election, pre election period, during the election and post election so pre election period there's going to be an increased security presence and administrative control controls.

[04:18.7]
During the actual election period on February 12th expect temporary disruption to mobility and government services. Post election conditions will depend on administrative sequencing and political responses. To conclude the February 12, 2026 Bangladesh National Elections represents a defined operational period requiring planning and awareness.

[04:43.6]
The main considerations relate to mobility, scheduling and administrative pace. Conditions are best characterized as managed and time bound rather than actual unrest.

Providing the right kind of care when it matters the most

A US employee of a global brand traveling on business in Shanghai suffered a potentially life threating sub-arachnoid haemorrhage and was rushed into hospital. Everbridge Assist was subsequently contacted by the patient’s colleague requesting assistance. 

Solutions 

As the initial communication regarding the patient’s condition was unclear, we immediately appointed a local in-country agent to provide direct contact with the hospital, gain accurate medical information and translations to facilitate progress of the case. 

This also enabled us to provide an immediate guarantee of payment to ensure no delays in treatment were incurred. We quickly established lines of communication with all the relevant parties, including the treating doctors, the client and the patient’s family. 

We fully appreciate that effective communication is key, not only to ensure we’re fully aware of any changes to the patient’s condition at the earliest opportunity, but to also facilitate any additional support required as soon as possible. 

Everbridge Assist uses a well-established network of healthcare facilities globally. In this case, as the patient had already been admitted to a hospital, and as part of our due diligence process, we were able to assess the healthcare facilities to determine whether they were suitable to meet the patient’s treatment needs. Our team had already made provisional plans in advance for ongoing care, including a potential transfer to an alternative facility and provision for medical repatriation, if required. 

Following our assessment, the medical facility was deemed capable of providing the necessary surgical expertise and care required for the patient’s condition. Additional nursing care and equipment were provided to ensure his day-to-day care needs were being met. 

Further, we organized additional neurosurgical expertise to review the patient and confirm the diagnosis and treatment pathway. Through our regular communication with the treating medical team and family, our clinical team were also able to support the patient in ensuring appropriate management of pain relief to ensure his comfort. 

We fully understand the enormous stress endured by the family when their loved one is taken ill overseas. Our service encompasses care of the family, including in this case, daily communication to keep them informed of their loved one’s condition and treatment, particularly important with any language barriers, and of any logistical aspects of our assistance. Importantly, it also enables us to understand their concerns and needs. As a result, a fundamental part of our assistance for the family was to organize their visas, flights to and accommodation in Shanghai, as well as their transportation to and from the hospital. 

The patient and family often worry about the practical and financial implications of being unwell overseas. As part of our assistance, we facilitated the completion of insurance claim forms and absence of leave forms for the family and the patient’s employers, in order to provide the necessary supportive information. This ensured they would continue to be paid during their leave of absence. 

The Outcome 

Following an extended stay in hospital and a subsequent convalescence period in Shanghai, the patient recovered sufficiently for him to be able to safely return to the US. 

In this case, although a medical repatriation was no longer required, we provided a door-to-door service for him and his family, ensuring they all arrived home safely. 

The patient and family were provided a number of repatriation options and were able to discuss these with our clinical team to determine the most suitable option. 

As part of our wraparound service, we made the essential medical referral with our relevant counterparts in the US, to enable an effective medical handover and to provide continuity of care. 

Therefore, on his return to the US, we remained in contact with the patient to confirm that the necessary local medical appointments had been made and attended and that an appropriate follow-up medical plan was in place. This medical handover concluded our service and no further assistance was required. 

About Everbridge Assist 

To operate effectively, every business needs to focus on being more adaptable, more flexible, more resilient. It’s not enough to look at any single aspect in isolation. You need to consider how every part of the organization can perform no matter what. 

This may mean ensuring your international travellers and expats can work safely and effectively wherever they are in the world. It may involve making sure your facilities are adequately protected against environmental and man-made risks. Or it could mean focusing on increasing the robustness of your entire end-to-end supply chain. 

Five real-world cases where receiving the right care at the right time made all the difference

When crises strike, a swift and expert response can make all the difference. From medical evacuations to security extractions, these Everbridge Assist cases highlight the value of having a dedicated team of security, medical, and logistics professionals ready to act, ensuring your people receive the care and protection they need when it matters most.

1. Life-saving evacuation for a critical medical emergency

When a corporate traveler was hospitalized in Belém, Brazil with thrombosis, she was given a 50 percent chance of survival and just 24 hours to receive specialist treatment before her critical organs would fail.

The hospital lacked the necessary equipment and specialists, so Everbridge Assist stepped in. Everbridge quickly assembled a team of security, medical, and operational personnel. A bilingual security professional was deployed locally to assist with translation, provide support, and coordinate movements on the ground.

This enabled an emergency medical air evacuation. Within 12 hours, the patient arrived 3,000 km away in São Paulo, where she was successfully treated by a specialist capable of performing the complex surgery.

When a US employee of a global brand suffered a life threatening subarachnoid hemorrhage while on business in Shanghai, our assistance team was contacted by their colleague.

We immediately deployed a local agent to liaise with the hospital, obtain accurate medical updates, and provide translations to ensure smooth case management.

After confirming the hospital’s facilities were suitable, we arranged for the patient’s family to fly to Shanghai and stay nearby. We also assisted with completing insurance claims and work absence forms to ensure the employee’s salary continued without interruption.

When personnel found themselves at the center of a terror attack in Stockholm, Sweden, they placed an emergency call to their Global Security Operations Center, who immediately contacted Everbridge Assist.

A lone perpetrator in a van hit bystanders before crashing into the wall of our client’s office. With gunfire being heard and the security situation fluid, our team liaised with the employees directly, coaching them on how to shelter-in-place and barricade the doors until support personnel could reach them.

To ensure the safe extraction of the employees, our team arranged a car, driver and close protection officer. The employees were provided with the name, telephone number and photograph of the key close protection officer deployed, as well as a password that the individual would use as an additional identifier on arrival.

All the affected personnel were safely extracted from their office and escorted to safety.

4. Ongoing treatment and support for complex mental health case

A US student, undertaking her PhD in the UK, was struggling with underlying mental health issues and contacted our assistance team for help. During the initial assessment, our clinician flagged the case as high priority and arranged immediate counseling, face-to-face psychiatric appointments, and additional support. The case was complex, requiring the coordination of 5 separate health professionals, all arranged via our assistance team. To ensure that the patient had the medications she needed, we also collected and delivered her prescriptions directly to her.

Following treatment, the patient’s mental health condition stabilized sufficiently for her to be able to remain in the UK and continue her studies. We continued to support the student during her stay, monitoring her progress and providing additional care and treatment as and when her condition fluctuated.

The daughter of a British expat working in China was suffering with symptoms local doctors had attributed to recurrent kidney infections. When symptoms worsened the family contacted Everbridge Assist for assistance. Having reviewed the case and liaised with local doctors, our clinicians determined a more serious condition, organizing an MRI scan which revealed a potential tumor.

The patient had been treated at several hospitals with incompatible technology, making it impossible to share medical files. Our team collated and encrypted the data, transferring it to the most suitable medical facility, reviewing the history, and ordering further tests.

Due to the complexity of the case, it was agreed that the patient would be flown back to the UK for treatment, which we arranged. We then transferred her to the NHS for long-term care.

Full transcript

[00:04.9]
Hello, my name is Wyatt Kinney and I’m the Everbridge Global Insights team’s regional analyst for Asia Pacific. Today I’ll be providing a brief update on renewed military tensions along the Thailand and Cambodian border and what this escalation means for organizations operating in the region.
[00:21.3]
On December 8th Thailand carried out airstrikes against Cambodian military positions near the contested areas of Pre Vaheer and Tamu. And Tom, Thai authorities say the strikes were a defensive response after Cambodia deployed long range rocket systems close enough to threaten Thailand civilian areas.
[00:39.5]
Cambodia reports at least four civilian deaths, additional injuries and damage to infrastructure in the area that was impacted. Both governments initiated evacuations along the border following the strikes. This marks the most serious escalation between the two countries south since mid-2025.
[00:57.0]
Why does this matter? These strikes are part of a broader pattern of instability throughout 2025, including exchanges of fire between the two sides earlier this year in May, civilian confrontations in September along the border which included protests and a landmine blast in November that disrupted the Kuala Lumpur Peace Accord which was a US and Malaysia facilitated framework designed to help Thailand and Cambodia manage border incidents, coordinate troop movements, support joint de mining within the area.
[01:27.3]
The implementation of this peace report has been uneven as we’ve seen further escalations since it’s been implemented. At the same time the communication channels meant to prevent escalation are underdeveloped or inconsistent. Without reliable joint investigation or de escalation tactics, even routine troop movements from either side can be seen as hostile actions.
[01:51.3]
So the core of what drives the tension between the two countries, the International Court of Justice in 1962 ruled that the pre of a year of temple belongs to Cambodia. But the ruling did not clarify the surrounding territory, leaving the border ambiguous and highly dispute prone.
[02:10.8]
Domestic politics play a role as well. Thai security institutions emphasize rapid decisive responses. Cambodia faces a strong sovereignty expectation from communities living near the contested area. External actors also shape the tension.
[02:27.7]
The US and Malaysia continue to support the Kuala Lumpur process in the peace accord. Cambodia’s close relationship with China adds additional geopolitical weight to its own decision making when these disputes occur. So impacts on business operations.
[02:45.2]
For companies operating in northeastern Thailand or northwestern Cambodia, this escalation affects logistics, workforce mobility, regulatory processes and project timelines. Cross border checkpoints already seeing slower processing and heightened inspections.
[03:02.0]
Manufacturing zones reliant on cross border flows including textiles, footwear, electrical components, automotive components. It’s possible they’ll see production delays and the need for higher inventory buffers, Cambodian nationals working in Thailand may face tighter document checks, leading to temporary workforce gaps.
[03:22.1]
Infrastructure and development projects near the border, especially those requiring surveys or demining, may experience pauses or restricted access. Even administrative processes such as Cambodia’s recent e visa changes are adding uncertainty to the digital and regulatory workflows.
[03:40.5]
So, an outlook for this situation in the next 48 to 72 hours. Continued tension along the border, no doubt. Hopefully no indication of intentional escalation. But like we talked about before, you know, even a simple troop movement could spark something. The lack of joint monitoring keeps misinterpretation risks elevated.
[04:00.8]
Certainly, over the next two to six weeks, fragile standoff is most the most likely scenario. Even with occasional incidents, uneven diplomatic engagement, organizations should anticipate recurring operational variability, over the next six to 12 months going into 2026, the core issues are going to remain, which includes an unclear border, leftover mines, and weak coordination between the two governments.
[04:32.4]
Unlikely, to be resolved, be resolved quickly. Because of that, even without a full scale conflict, the border is expected to remain unstable from time to time or sporadically throughout the next year. So what should organizations do now?
[04:47.5]
Companies should ensure their business continuity plans allow rapid adjustments to routing, staffing, and facility access. Alternate transport corridors either through Laos, Vietnam, or other maritime routes may be needed if tensions increase. Non essential travel near affected districts should be limited.
[05:05.3]
Essential personnel should receive vetted route guidance and reliable communication tools. And finally, communication with staff, partners, and investors should remain factual and neutral, Given the sensitivity of the territorial issues. Thank you so much.
[05:20.6]
We’ll continue to monitor the situation closely. Have a great rest of your day.