Full transcript
[00:05.0]
Hello, my name is Zsolt Csepregi. I’m the senior regional analyst for the Middle East and North Africa at Everbridges Global Insights team. Today I will deliver an Update on the US Iran conflict. As of Thursday, July 30, the conflict appears to be again on an escalatory trajectory.
[00:23.1]
And while this round of escalation is still limited compared to the most dangerous previous rounds that we had in the last couple of months, there are still two developments that seem to be reshaping the conflict’s trajectory in the near term and also the Middle Eastern regional environment in the long term.
[00:43.2]
The first is that Saudi Arabia has carried out airstrikes together with the United States against Iran allied militias, inside Iraq that have been carrying out drone strikes against Saudi energy infrastructure in the last week.
[01:03.9]
Now we had unconfirmed reportings in the previous months that smaller Gulf states have been carrying out retaliation strikes against Iran after Iran was striking their territory. But this is the first time when we had a confirmed news that Saudi Arabia, the largest Gulf Arab state, has carried out major military operations against Iranian proxies and possibly Iranian operatives in another country.
[01:36.6]
This means that Saudi Arabia may be entering the conflict in a more robust way in the coming days and weeks. And this also raises the risk of retaliation by Iran or proxies and attacks against Saudi or other Gulf states, infrastructure in the near term.
[01:59.8]
The other development that is worthwhile to highlight is that after carrying out a number of attacks against Saudi shipping and energy infrastructure, the Yemeni Houthis, who are controlling the northwestern part of the country and are a group which is supported by Iran, they’re floating the idea that as Iran is threatening to collect fees from the Strait of Hormuz in any post war arrangement, the Yemeni Houthis are intending to collect fees in the Red Sea and thereby tax global shipping.
[02:43.6]
Now this is creating a significant pressure for global shipping because if the future of the Middle east transportation corridors is that both of these vital locations would be in effect taxed by a local, by a local state, in the form of Iran and local terrorist militia in form of the Yemeni usis, this would mean that not only the financial burden of these fees but the associated disruptions, military, any pressure, and threats that are connected to any kind of contested arrangement.
[03:28.7]
So we see that the US Iran conflict by while some may claim that it’s in some kind of a stalemate. It’s true that on the macro level we have some kind of a stalemate type of competition between the US and Iran where both are trying to calibrate the level of escalation.
[03:48.2]
But these two trajectories are showing that in the near term the conflict may involve the Gulf states more deeply so not only as a territory for Iranian strikes on US assets and other infrastructure but also as participant of offensive operations.
[04:08.0]
And also that the long term future of the Middle east and also global shipping will be decided in this conflict because if fee collection will be the norm in the Middle east that will reshape global logistics for many years to come.
[04:26.1]
We at Everbridge’s Global Insights team are going to monitor this rapidly developing situation in the coming days and weeks as the conflict progresses.
Full transcript
[00:07.3]
Hello, my name is Wyatt Kinney and I am the Asia Pacific Regional analyst for the Everbridge Global Insights team. A magnitude 7.1 earthquake struck southern Japan today, centered in Kumamoto Prefecture on the island of Kyushu. A Tsunami advisory was issued briefly before being lifted after no significant wave activity was detected.
[00:28.0]
Authorities also reported no abnormalities at nearby nuclear facilities. The earthquake caused structural damage. At least 50 reported injuries, although that number can change due to reporting and widespread disruption across the region. Local reporting indicates an explosion at a nearby mall in Kumamoto Prefecture where a partial collapse was reported and emergency responders remain on scene.
[00:52.5]
Additional impacts include damages to roads and buildings, localized fires and a derailed train and Yatsushiro rail services and airport operations were suspended while safety inspections continue. Also, power outages are affecting tens of thousands.
[01:09.6]
Response efforts remain ongoing. Approximately 300,000 people have been instructed to move to evacuation centers. Fire services, Coast Guard and Self defense force personnel have been deployed to support rescue operations as multiple people remain missing.
[01:26.4]
Authorities continue to assess damage while responding to persistent aftershocks across Kyushu. From a business continuity perspective, the primary concern is disruption to transportation, logistics and manufacturing. Kyushu is a major hub for advanced manufacturing, automotive production and semiconductor supply chains.
[01:45.8]
Interruptions to rail road, air transport and utilities may delay production from freight movement, employee mobility and time sensitive deliveries throughout the region. The near term outlook remains focused on aftershock activity and the pace of infrastructure restoration.
[02:03.5]
Additional seismic activity may slow rescue operations, prolong transport disruptions and extend inspections of buildings, utilities and critical infrastructure. The next several days will likely be defined by damage assessments and gradual restoration efforts for organizations with personnel, facilities or suppliers in Kyushu.
[02:23.2]
The immediate priorities are maintaining employee accountability, monitoring transportation and infrastructure updates and verifying supplier status and understanding how long it could possibly take for safe movement until normal operations resume.
[02:39.2]
While the full extent of the damage is still being assessed. The coming days will provide a clearer picture of the operational and and supply chain impacts across Kyushu. We will continue to monitor the situation and provide updates as more information becomes available. Thank you for watching.
Full transcript
[00:07.5]
Hello, my name is George Chapli. I’m the Senior Regional Analyst for the Middle east and North Africa at Everbridge’s Global Insights team on Wednesday July 8th. US President Donald Trump has stated at the NATO summit in Ankara that the ceasefire with Iran is over leading to severe doubts about the security environment in the Gulf and the future trajectory and near term of the global energy market.
[00:33.4]
Now these statements came after a day of severe escalation in the Gulf. Iran has allegedly struck three commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, after Iran has warned them not to use the Omani side of the shipping corridor.
[00:52.1]
In response the US Carried out strikes against Iranian military targets in the southern side of the country and Iran has counter retaliated against targets in Kuwait and Bahrain. Now the issue is that all this military action and the diplomatic messaging is now creating an interlinked escalation cycle where each one is feeding into the other.
[01:21.0]
The two sides are pursuing contradicting aims. Iran is trying to show that it can impose any kind of costs on vessels that are transiting the Strait of Hormuz outside of the zone that it considers its zone of control.
[01:40.8]
And on the other hand the US is trying to show that it can decisively answer to these strikes attributed to Iran and restore deterrents. Now both sides are threatening further strikes in the coming hours and therefore near term escalation is likely.
[01:59.4]
Now that doesn’t mean that the diplomatic path is closed. President Trump has explicitly stated that while the renewed strikes on Iranian targets are likely, the US Is still interested in sitting down with Iran and and negotiating further on reaching some kind of a lasting agreement on the cessation of hostilities, the permanent lifting of sanctions on Iran and access to the Strait of Hormuz and on the Iranian nuclear program.
[02:38.8]
Now the timing of this escalation matters as the U S Iran talks were already suspended due to the ceremonial funeral events that were held in Iran between July 3rd lasting until the 9th of July, for the late Supreme Leader Ali KHAMENEI, the US UN talks were supposed to continue after the 10th of July.
[03:10.6]
So this cycle of escalation should be Barclay C. As a breakdown of the ceasefire framework but also that the sides are trying to reposition and regain some kind of a leverage or increase their leverage ahead of any continued talks.
[03:30.8]
That said, while the diplomatic path remains, viable. It’s severely challenged. In the near term, the likely pathway is more escalation and in the Gulf, and potentially now that the June 17th memorand of understanding between US and Iran is over, there’s also a chance that Israel would renew, hostilities, with Iran.
[03:57.6]
For businesses exposed in the Gulf or having assets, the primary risk is of the kinetic nature both to any vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The primary risk of strikes is continued to be in Bahrain and Kuwait where there are, US Linked, military facilities.
[04:19.4]
But if, the cycle of escalation continues, then the target set may expand to Qatar, Oman, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, and also as I mentioned, even to Israel. And also, the oil and gas market, exposure, is already creating ripple effects in the global energy markets that are, likely going to continue in the next couple, of days.
[04:55.5]
We at Everbridges Global Insights team are going to monitor the developments closely in the coming hours and days and going to provide updated analysis, in the following days.
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Full transcript
[00:05.0]
Hello, my name is Zsolt Chapregi. I'm the regional analyst for the Middle East and North Africa at Everbridges Global insights team. Today I will outline the current state and immediate forecast on the U. S Iran ceasefire negotiations scheduled for Saturday, April 11.
[00:20.1]
These talks matter because the current de escalation in the Iran war remains partial and highly vulnerable. The ceasefire is already showing visible strain on amid disputes over what was actually agreed, continued pressure on the Strait of Hormuz and spillover from Israel's military campaign against Hezbollah in Lebanon.
[00:38.9]
By the time talks begin, roughly a quarter of the two week polls announced by US President Donald Trump on April 7 will have already passed. An extension is possible and in fact may become necessary. But the compressed timeline still creates major anxiety for markets.
[00:54.9]
And as president Trump has warned that failure to meet US Demands could trigger renewed escalation, the ceasefire itself has not created a secure business environment in the Middle East. Kinetic signaling, contested interpretations of the truce and negotiation failure could all reignite escalation.
[01:12.1]
But even if the talks continue, the ceasefire sustains most of the economic disruptions. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains constrained by Iran with traffic still well below predictably pre conflict levels. That keeps energy markets nervous, raises transportation and insurance costs and sustains uncertainty for firms dependent on gulf shipping, refined products or time sensitive cargo.
[01:37.0]
Regional airspace disruptions and reduced schedules have not fully normalized across graph linked travel corridors, meaning companies should still expect rerouting delays, elevated operating costs and short notice itinerary changes. A further complication is Lebanon.
[01:54.3]
Israel is continuing its war against Hezbollah even as prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu has also authorized direct peace talks with Lebanon. That cuts both ways. On the one hand, continued fighting in Lebanon could hinder or even destabilize the U. S Iran negotiations.
[02:10.8]
On the other, if talks between Jerusalem and Beirut gain traction, they could eventually support a broader U. S led regional security framework and a more secure operating environment for businesses across the Middle east and the eastern Mediterranean. My current assessment is that both Washington and Tehran still interested in moving beyond the most severe phase of the crisis.
[02:34.7]
So the talks are more likely to drag and stumble than to collapse outright after the first round. That said, a durable agreement still looks unlikely in the near term for businesses. That means that the main risk is not an immediate restart of a full scale war, but a more volatile middle EAs over the coming weeks and months with periodic setbacks, isolated incidents raising the risk of renewed escalation.
[03:00.5]
This means continued disruptions to shipping, aviation, energy planning and executive risk management from a resilience perspective. This is the time to stress test continuity plans, review supply chain dependencies linked to Gulf shipping and air corridors, confirm crisis management and travel risk procedures, and ensure decision makers remain ready to for short notice disruption.
[03:24.1]
Companies should also begin considering scenarios not only for renewed escalation, but for a longer term restructuring of the Middle east after the war, including shifts in security alignments, trade corridors, energy flows and investment patterns. These are all aspects that we at Everbridge's Global Insights team will analyze in depth as the U S Iran talks unfold.
