Full transcript

[00:04.9]
afternoon everybody. My name is Adam DeLuca. I'm the director of Risk Intelligence here at Everbridge. First of all, I did want to wish Everybody a happy 2026. I know it has been an eventful start to the year with what occurred in Venezuela, the Russian oil tanker, and now what happened today in Minneapolis.

[00:20.5]
So during a large federal immigration enforcement operation today, an ICE officer shot and killed a 37 year old woman in her car. Federal officials have come out and said the shooting occur while the woman was allegedly trying to run over the agents and the agent fired in self defense.

[00:38.4]
However, local authorities in some bystander video appear to contradict that federal narrative and suggested the woman was just trying to move her car when she was shot. Local, officials, including Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Fry, strongly condemned the shooting, called it reckless and called for ICE to vacate the city.

[00:57.2]
Protests obviously erupted at the scene. Some federal agents used tear gas to disperse the crowds. Now I am not here to comment one, way or the other on what actually happened, but I do know that incidents like these and the incidents like the George Floyd situation a few years ago can galvanize national protest movements.

[01:17.8]
Specifically in sanctuary cities. They increase the risk of civil disorder, especially where local leaders oppose some of the federal enforcement tactics that are being used by the current administration. One thing I've talked about many times and continues to be a major concern for businesses is domestic violent extremism.

[01:35.2]
Flashpoint events such as this can lead the lone wolf actors on one side of the aisle or another to take actions into their own hands based off their own ideology to conduct some of these lone wolf attacks that we've seen domestic violent extremists conduct, especially against federal, buildings or immigration facilities.

[01:56.5]
I expect there to be broader scrutiny of ICE operations, congressional hearings, IG reviews, probably moratorium on some of those raids. Just general discourse, on both sides of the in general, calls for restructuring and possibly defunding.

[02:13.1]
It's going to echo the situation in Portland back in 2020. But obviously with the higher stakes due to the fatality of the bystander today, this is expected to have a chilling effect on immigrant communities nationwide. Probably a reduced reporting in crime, some decreased civic participation, social fragmentation.

[02:33.1]
Regardless of the specifics of the incident, it's likely to intensify fear. And that is going to have an effect on businesses in a var different ways. Whether that's groups that offer aid to immigrant families, or just operational risk in specific sectors that rely on the immigrant communities.

[02:50.2]
And a big thing I touched on earlier is going to be the risk exposure to federal facilities and personnel, stemming from an incident like this. There should be an elevated security posture for those dealing with the Fed and around federal buildings nationwide following an incident like this.

[03:06.1]
So we're going to keep our eye on the situation, as it develops, continue to report out and provide forward leaning analysis. But definitely in the next couple days, due to the size and coverage of this event, you can expect, it to have a galvanizing effect and possibly lead to larger scale protests or civil disorders.

[03:24.6]
So we'll keep an eye on the situation, but, hope everybody has a good rest of the day. Take care.

Full transcript

[00:05.3]
Hello, my name is Christian Robles and I am the regional analyst for Latin America and the Caribbean here at Everbridge. Today we’re tracking fast moving developments of Venezuela following a major US military operation that has triggered political uncertainty, internal changes and broader regional ripple effects.
[00:25.7]
During the early morning hours of January 3rd, the United States carried out Operation Absolute Resolve. The strikes targeted military and communications sites and Venezuelan authorities later reported damage at or near strategic infrastructure including La Guaira port, where local officials said missiles destroyed warehouses and caused significant disruption.
[00:49.9]
According to Venezuelan and Cuban officials, more than 80 people were killed, including 32 Cuban military and intelligence personnel. Cuba confirmed the deaths, stating that those personnel were assigned to Venezuela under bilateral security cooperation and were killed during combat and bombardment.
[01:10.6]
The outcome of the operation was unprecedented. President Nicolas Maduro and his wife Celia Flores were captured and flown to the United States. And on January 5th both appeared at A Manhattan Federal court and pleaded not guilty to drug trafficking charges while Maduro told the court he had been kidnapped.
[01:35.4]
From this point forward, uncertainty is the defining feature. US messaging towards Venezuela’s interim leadership has been mixed, reinforcing ambiguity around the path ahead. President Donald Trump has publicly stated that the United States could effectively run Venezuela until a transition is achieved, framing US objectives in a way that includes leveraging the country’s oil sector.
[02:07.1]
At the same time, senior U.S. officials have indicated that they expect cooperation from Acting President Delsey Rodriguez with warnings reported that failure to cooperate could result in consequences even worse than Maduro.
[02:23.5]
In parallel, Secretary of State Marco Rubio has sought to narrow that message, emphasizing coercive leverage aimed at producing democratically elected transition rather than day to day US Governance. Rubio has also argued that Venezuela’s next leader should ultimately be determined through free elections, particularly given disputes over the legitimacy of Maduro’s 2024 electoral victory, which the United States and several other countries never recognized.
[02:58.9]
Meanwhile, in Venezuela, the Maduro aligned state structure remains in place. The country’s judicial system directed Del Rodriguez to assume executive authority. She has publicly demanded Maduro’s release while also signaling interest in diplomatic engagement.
[03:17.1]
Also adding to the uncertainty, Venezuela has declared a state of emergency. While there have been no confirmed reports of curfews, the emergency framework increases the likelihood of movement, restrictions, communication disruptions and expanded security operations.
[03:33.8]
The decree also authorizes the detention of individuals accused of supporting the US attack, raising near term repression risks. On the ground, pro regime mobilization is already visible. Reporting describes pro government rallies, some involving armed participants, including groups known as colectivos, which are motorcycle based networks that have historically functioned as informal enforcement arms aligned with the state.
[04:03.7]
This raises the risk that even with Maduro removed, localized violence or parallel security actions could complicate any transition and keep security conditions in Caracas at the regional level.
[04:19.5]
Neighboring governments are closely monitoring border dynamics to limit spillover. While borders remain largely open, heightened security postures and the potential for checkpoints or inspections could disrupt Cross border trademark logistics and migration flows.
[04:36.5]
If conditions deteriorate beyond the region, the strategic implications are significant. Internationally, the operation is raising concerns about precedent. Even as Washington frames the action as law enforcement or counternarcotics, critics argue it challenges norms around sovereignty and territorial integrity.
[05:00.2]
If normalized, this could lower the threshold for other states to justify similar cross border operations, increasing global instability. For Russia and China, Venezuela’s upheaval represents a strategic setback. Both invested heavily in Venezuela as a key partner in the Western Hemisphere.
[05:20.5]
While condemning the operation, they may now seek to reinforce influence elsewhere, including in East Asia, Africa, and the Middle East. As the United States signals renewed focus in regions nearby, we will continue to monitor developments closely, including the security environment in Caracas, emergency measures, border and trade implications, and evolving geopolitical responses.
[05:47.5]
The Global Insights Team Team will publish relevant updates as new confirmed information becomes available.

Full transcript

[00:04.9]
Everybody, my name is Adam DeLuca. I'm the director of Risk Intelligence here at Everbridge. I know I've been popping on these a lot lately, but unfortunately, things, continue to happen, that we need to highlight, for our customers and partners. Just last night, gunman attacked a Hanukkah celebration at a popular tourist spot in Australia called Bondi beach.

[00:28.3]
They killed 11 people in an act of anti Semit. And obviously there's been a wave of anti Semitism in Australia over the past years with vandalism and attacks, on the rise throughout the country. It's the deadliest shooting in Australia in almost three decades.

[00:46.0]
One suspect is in custody, the other is dead. It occurred just hours after another shooting at Brown University, where an individual who's still at large opened fire in a school building, killing two and injuring dozens of other students.

[01:04.0]
These are horrible and sad events, but unfortunately they continue to happen. Violent extremism, something that we've talked about many times, it is cheap, it's easy to conduct, and it's very tough to detect and deter. Once an individual is motivated by ideology or something else, they're very difficult to stop.

[01:23.9]
And I still think organizations are overlooking this as a threat. There are things that you can do to mitigate these risks. In spite of these being cheap, easy and difficult to detect, you can conduct vulnerability and threat assessments. You need to identify your high value targets and your high value events.

[01:42.5]
You need to continue monitoring and understand tactics, tradecrafts and procedures like vehicle rammings, especially around this time of year. For Christmas markets in Europe and other outdoor events. You need to leverage dark web monitoring and good open source intelligence so you understand the threat landscape.

[01:59.4]
You need to harden perimeters, control access. You need to randomize security patterns to make yourself and your security less predictable. And you need to enhance your partnerships with law enforcement. And these are all things that you can do to mitigate these risks and keep your people safe this time of year with all these high profile events happening.

[02:19.5]
So, I hope everybody stays safe and has a great rest of the weekend here at Everbridge. We'll continue to monitor and provide updates as necessary. I hope everybody has a great day.

Full transcript

[00:04.9]
Hey, everybody. My name is Adam DeLuca. I’m the director of Risk Intelligence here at Everbridge. It’s good to be with you all today. I’m here with Ignacio Brarda. He is our deputy CISO here. And looking back on the last year, we just wanted to have a conversation with him about cyber security.
[00:20.4]
It’s obviously a big issue, with organizations right now, and I wanted to bring Ignacio to talk about it. So thank you very much for being here. Yeah, thank you, Adam. Excited to be here. Great. So, you know, just kind of looking back over the last year with how active the cybersecurity threat landscape was, what would you identify as maybe a significant trend or cybersecurity incident that was a real inflection point for the threat landscape?
[00:47.3]
Yeah, that’s. That’s an excellent question, because there’s definitely a lot going on this past year. But something that was very unique to, to 2025, I would say, is that we had the first reported AI orchestrated cyber espionage campaign. Right.
[01:02.5]
And in there, this is a, before and after, I think, in the industry, because bad actors are starting to use agents to do these attacks for them. Right. And so if you think right, like, bad actors organize themselves, they create their own enterprises.
[01:20.8]
But what’s different now is that by leveraging AI and these technologies that were designed, for good, they’re using them from the wrong reasons. And this means that they have an army of 24 by seven agents that can produce these attacks for them.
[01:39.9]
We know that the technology landscape is very complex. You need a lot of expertise in different areas. But just like AI helps us understand technologies better, it’s also helping these attackers quickly become experts and finding exploits on different technologies that are out there.
[01:56.0]
And with the help of AI agents, they can automate that and be constantly knocking at your door trying, to find how to get in. Yeah, it just makes them faster and more efficient and, you know, be able to change the adversary behavior and targeting and their capabilities.
[02:12.7]
Especially with the, geopolitical nation state actors, the Volt typhoon campaigns, and ransomware for a service. I think AI is just going to accelerate all that and make it that much more difficult for organizations to kind of defend against it. But again, to the ransomware point, we talk about ransomware and we talk about phishing, denial of service attacks, but what are some of the emerging cyber trends in 2026 that might not be top of mind yet for organizations?
[02:41.5]
Yeah, I think part of that is going to be Being able to respond before it was with automation and APIs, you know, it was responding at the speed of machines. Now with the AI, it’s going to be responding at the speed of AI.
[02:56.8]
And this is, a component that’s adaptive. Right. For teams. So if you think about it before, being good at security is not good enough anymore. Right. You need to take that extra level that before only certain enterprises and industries were able to get to, which is being adaptive.
[03:14.5]
How do you adapt? Attacks are going to be being modified as they start getting through defenses now. Right. With the help of AI, you know, malware can mutate in order to find the ways to get through the different defense layers. So I think, you know, besides your ransomware, your phishings, we need to be very careful with adaptive attacks.
[03:35.8]
I think they’re changing as, as they go and as they make it through your organization, in order to be ready for that. It’s kind of like fighting fire with fire. Attackers are using AI to do this, while organizations are going to have to be better at using AI to prevent them from leveraging these adaptive attacks.
[03:57.2]
So what are some ways to do that? Zero trust architecture, proactive red teaming. What are some of the uses that you could use AI for to defend against, against some of these attacks? Yeah, that’s an excellent question, Adam. I think one of them is when you look at your user behavior and even taking a step farther, your services and machine behaviors, using machine learning to understand that behavior.
[04:24.0]
So that whenever something steps away from that predefined, baseline that you have built for either that user identity or system, you can quickly identify that and have the team respond to it. Right.
[04:39.0]
And a lot of that response going to be automated in some way. Right. So you’ll have to define, I think enterprise teams are going to, are going to have to define where the risk appetite is and how much they want to let these AIs respond to these attacks for them.
[04:57.3]
Because there’s definitely risk associated with that too, right? Well, yeah, it’s not about risk avoidance. Right. It’s about risk prioritization and making sure that you’re taking on the amount of risk for certain vulnerabilities. But I think everybody’s going to want to know what’s next.
[05:13.2]
So you just touched on that. But how might organizations go about prioritizing improving their cyber posture going forward with the dynamic threat of AI and with the increased presence of nation state actors in these threat groups? Yeah, yeah.
[05:29.5]
And you know that I like, I really like that last part. Of your question, you know, state actors and threat groups, the way organizations can defend against those very advanced threats and persistent threats is really identifying what the crown jewels are.
[05:46.1]
Right. One of the key things I think for 2026 is going to be really locking down those crown jewels, really putting the focus where what are those systems, people, processes, data that are making your business money, that are critical to your operation and making sure that you’re able to protect them with the right technologies in there.
[06:07.3]
As we see the world becoming more and more digital, the landscape is growing and the amount of systems, it’s rapidly increasing. So really understanding what are my crown jewels, what are the systems that are making money to my organization that I, you know, we need to protect everything.
[06:26.3]
But my focus needs to be very adaptive, in these specific systems for my organization. So I do think, you know, CISOs and security experts are going to have to continue to work their, their business hat right. And really understanding what’s critical for, for the business and how can I protect that in 2026.
[06:44.9]
Yeah, it’s not just for cyber. It’s identifying unacceptable consequences based off of threat environment and adapting. So, you know, tabletop exercises, not just good cyber hygiene, but, you know, because the way people are attacking and going about exploiting information now is just so diverse and complicated.
[07:04.2]
Ignacio, it was great for you to take the time out today and join us on the rapid resilience pod. Anytime. You’re happy to come on and talk to us about cybersecurity, hygiene or anything else. We really appreciate the partnership over the last year. Excellent. Thanks, Adam.
[07:19.9]
All right, thanks, Ignacio.
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Full transcript

[00:04.9]
Hello, my name is Wyatt Kinney and I’m the Everbridge Global Insights team’s regional analyst for Asia Pacific. Today I’ll be providing a brief update on renewed military tensions along the Thailand and Cambodian border and what this escalation means for organizations operating in the region.
[00:21.3]
On December 8th Thailand carried out airstrikes against Cambodian military positions near the contested areas of Pre Vaheer and Tamu. And Tom, Thai authorities say the strikes were a defensive response after Cambodia deployed long range rocket systems close enough to threaten Thailand civilian areas.
[00:39.5]
Cambodia reports at least four civilian deaths, additional injuries and damage to infrastructure in the area that was impacted. Both governments initiated evacuations along the border following the strikes. This marks the most serious escalation between the two countries south since mid-2025.
[00:57.0]
Why does this matter? These strikes are part of a broader pattern of instability throughout 2025, including exchanges of fire between the two sides earlier this year in May, civilian confrontations in September along the border which included protests and a landmine blast in November that disrupted the Kuala Lumpur Peace Accord which was a US and Malaysia facilitated framework designed to help Thailand and Cambodia manage border incidents, coordinate troop movements, support joint de mining within the area.
[01:27.3]
The implementation of this peace report has been uneven as we’ve seen further escalations since it’s been implemented. At the same time the communication channels meant to prevent escalation are underdeveloped or inconsistent. Without reliable joint investigation or de escalation tactics, even routine troop movements from either side can be seen as hostile actions.
[01:51.3]
So the core of what drives the tension between the two countries, the International Court of Justice in 1962 ruled that the pre of a year of temple belongs to Cambodia. But the ruling did not clarify the surrounding territory, leaving the border ambiguous and highly dispute prone.
[02:10.8]
Domestic politics play a role as well. Thai security institutions emphasize rapid decisive responses. Cambodia faces a strong sovereignty expectation from communities living near the contested area. External actors also shape the tension.
[02:27.7]
The US and Malaysia continue to support the Kuala Lumpur process in the peace accord. Cambodia’s close relationship with China adds additional geopolitical weight to its own decision making when these disputes occur. So impacts on business operations.
[02:45.2]
For companies operating in northeastern Thailand or northwestern Cambodia, this escalation affects logistics, workforce mobility, regulatory processes and project timelines. Cross border checkpoints already seeing slower processing and heightened inspections.
[03:02.0]
Manufacturing zones reliant on cross border flows including textiles, footwear, electrical components, automotive components. It’s possible they’ll see production delays and the need for higher inventory buffers, Cambodian nationals working in Thailand may face tighter document checks, leading to temporary workforce gaps.
[03:22.1]
Infrastructure and development projects near the border, especially those requiring surveys or demining, may experience pauses or restricted access. Even administrative processes such as Cambodia’s recent e visa changes are adding uncertainty to the digital and regulatory workflows.
[03:40.5]
So, an outlook for this situation in the next 48 to 72 hours. Continued tension along the border, no doubt. Hopefully no indication of intentional escalation. But like we talked about before, you know, even a simple troop movement could spark something. The lack of joint monitoring keeps misinterpretation risks elevated.
[04:00.8]
Certainly, over the next two to six weeks, fragile standoff is most the most likely scenario. Even with occasional incidents, uneven diplomatic engagement, organizations should anticipate recurring operational variability, over the next six to 12 months going into 2026, the core issues are going to remain, which includes an unclear border, leftover mines, and weak coordination between the two governments.
[04:32.4]
Unlikely, to be resolved, be resolved quickly. Because of that, even without a full scale conflict, the border is expected to remain unstable from time to time or sporadically throughout the next year. So what should organizations do now?
[04:47.5]
Companies should ensure their business continuity plans allow rapid adjustments to routing, staffing, and facility access. Alternate transport corridors either through Laos, Vietnam, or other maritime routes may be needed if tensions increase. Non essential travel near affected districts should be limited.
[05:05.3]
Essential personnel should receive vetted route guidance and reliable communication tools. And finally, communication with staff, partners, and investors should remain factual and neutral, Given the sensitivity of the territorial issues. Thank you so much.
[05:20.6]
We’ll continue to monitor the situation closely. Have a great rest of your day.

Full transcript

00:05

Hello, my name is Christian Robles and I’m the regional analyst for Latin America in the Caribbean here at Everbridge. We’ve been following this story since mid August when reports first surfaced that the US was deploying naval and air assets into the southern Caribbean.5sAdd a noteJump to

00:22

Early positioning framed as a counter narcotics buildup against so-called narot terrorists in the region. Two months later, that buildup has become a live operation. The US has now conducted 10 confirmed strikes. Eight in the Caribbean Sea and two in the Eastern

00:40

Pacific, killing at least 43 people and capturing two others. The latest strike hit a Drenad Aagua vessel in international waters. And hours later, Washington ordered the deployment of the Gerald R. Ford carrier strike group into the region under US southern command.

01:02

This marks a turning point. What began as targeted interdictions is now a full-scale power projection in the Western Hemisphere. And looking ahead, if this continues, several outcomes are possible. First, the operation could expand beyond the sea. President Trump has said he

01:22

won’t seek a declaration of war and that land operations will be next. That raises the prospect of covert actions inside Venezuela or air strikes on inland targets. Redrawing the map of US engagement in South America. Second, regional alignment is hardening. Colombia accuses Washington of

01:45

extrajudicial killings while Venezuela is mobilizing forces along its borders and warning of asymmetrical warfare. Meanwhile, Trinidad and Tobago is moving the other direction, hosting the destroyer USS Graveley and 2,000 Marines this week for joint exercises. The

02:05

island has become Washington’s southern anchor, a forward partner now facing greater exposure to Venezuelan cyber and intelligence pressures. And third, the commercial impact for shipping energy and insurance. The southern Caribbean is shifting from a patrol zone to a contested operating environment.

02:29

It’s expected temporary port closures in Trinidad and Tobago, higher war risk and detention premiums within 200 nautical miles of Venezuelan waters and strict sanctions screenings as the US expands terror designations. If exclusion zones appear or if Venezuela begins shadowing commercial

02:49

traffic, markets will react quickly. Since August, this campaign has evolved from deterrence to execution. The language deployments and now the carrier group all signal a sustained operational phase. If the tempo continues, the next step could move Finland. A shift that would

03:09

rattle regional stability and the confidence of US companies moving goods, fuel or data through these routes. We’ve been covering this from all angles and the takeaway is clear. We recommend monitoring unfolding events. Each new strike, asset movement signals that this

03:30

operation isn’t slowing, and the longer it runs, the harder it becomes to unwind. I’m Christian Robas, and we’ll continue tracking how these developments shape risk and stability across the region in the days ahead.

Full transcript

[[00:05.0]

Hello, my name is Zsolt Csepregi. I’m the regional, analyst for the Middle east and North Africa at Eberbridge’s Global Insights Team. Today I will outline the ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas and highlight the associated security and business risks. The newly announced Gaza ceasefire, which was brokered by the United States, Egypt, Turkey and Qatar, is a phase one agreement which is designed to secure the release of Israeli hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners, assured limited withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza and expanded humanitarian aid access.

[00:39.4]

It’s an important step, but it’s not a solution. Mediators themselves call it a starting point. A narrow humanitarian and political transaction, but not a complete peace plan. The goal right now is simple, to stop the immediate fighting and get the Israeli hostages home.

[00:55.9]

Everything beyond that, from Hamas disarmament to the future of Gaza’s governance, remains deeply contested. The second phase, meant to turn this truce into a sustainable political settlement, will be much harder. Israel insists that Hamas must be disarmed and excluded from the governance of Gaza.

[01:14.9]

While Hamas for its part, refuses to surrender control or its legitimacy. These positions are fundamentally incompatible once the immediate pressure eases. So the Israeli hostages are home and Israeli troops pull back, both sides will have far less incentive to compromise.

[01:34.7]

External actors are also shaping this trajectory. Palestinian Islamic Jihad has cautiously accepted the deal, but there is still a risk that more militant elements within Hamas or BIG could splinter towards Islamic State aligned, groups that outrightly reject any form of political compromise with Israel.

[01:55.6]

The Houthis in Yemen continue to reject the ceasefire outright, keeping Red Sea maritime risks elevated, while Hezbollah remains deliberately ambiguous along the northern border of Israel. For businesses and international operators, this environment represents de escalation without guaranteeing a resolution.

[02:15.4]

It’s a reduction in immediate violence, but not in underlying instability. So logistics and air travel are likely to remain volatile with potential disruptions from renewed rocket fire, drone attacks or political protests.

[02:30.5]

And beyond the region, pro Palestinian and pro Israeli demonstrations will continue across major global cities, carrying reputational and operational risk for multinational firms. Global companies should therefore remain vigilant and adaptable as this first phase of the ceasefire unfold and negotiations on the second phase start.

[02:51.0]

Even if progress continues, instability will persist across the Middle East. Organizations should diversify logistic routes, review travel and security protocols and maintain flexible staffing and crisis communication plans. Monitoring both of regional developments as well as protest movements globally will be key in protecting personnel and operations.

[03:12.8]

The coming months will demand strategic patience coupled with operational flexibility as the ceasefire talks may reduce violence temporarily but are far from assuring a lasting stability.

Full transcript

[00:04.9]

Hello, my name is Christie Majoros. I am the Regional Analyst for North America on Everbridge’s Global Insights team. And today I’ll be giving a brief update on the current government shutdown, which is in its seventh day after starting on October 1st. At this time, there is little indication of the compromise in voting which would end the current shutdown and reopen the government.

[00:24.7]

And this is seeming unlikely to happen today or perhaps even this week. Government shutdowns are nothing new. We saw them during the previous Trump administration, and we saw them during the Obama administration. Like previous shutdowns, this current shutdown is causing many of the same problems in the halting of the disbursement of federal funding and also in the furloughing of the federal employees that run federal agencies.

[00:52.7]

However, unlike previous shutdowns, which were a temporary pause on government processes, this current shutdown has been seized upon as an opportunity for the administration to reallocate federal resources so that they are more in keeping with current executive priorities.

[01:14.5]

We’re seeing this happen in two ways. First, in the withdrawal or the cut to federal funding for certain projects. We’ve seen this, for major infrastructure projects in New York and Chicago, and also for clean energy projects in at least 16 other states to date.

[01:36.7]

Second, the President has announced that there are likely to be further personnel cuts to federal agencies. At this time, those agencies have not been named specifically. However, taking into account current executive priorities and the cuts made to federal agencies earlier this year, we might surmise that these are agencies that will be related to civilian, regulatory or science matters.

[02:04.2]

However, this remains to be seen. So what does this mean for businesses? Well, like any shutdown, this largely puts a pause on the government processes that interact with businesses. However, unlike a typical shutdown, whose effects would be temporary, this shutdown will have a reshaping effect on the federal government.

[02:28.9]

This means that many sources of federal funding or federal processes may not resume after the shutdown is resolved. And this will have a big impact on which industries will be able to grow and which will find this more difficult in the post shutdown period.

[02:48.9]

For right now, in addition to the practical problems created by this shutdown, there’s also this large uncertainty, in a situation which is very high stakes and increasingly volatile. So what can businesses do to mitigate?

[03:04.7]

Well, they can strengthen cash reserves, they can look beyond federal contracts, and they can stay alert to policy shifts, so that they can quickly adjust if funding or regulations change. In short, they can be prepared, they can keep an eye on the situation and be prepared for the possibility of a long term disruptive change.

Full transcript

[00:05.0]
Hello everyone. Thank you for joining. My name is James Burr and I’m the Senior Regional Analyst for Europe Caucuses and Central Asia. I want to give you a quick briefing on an ongoing security risk, rising antisemitic violence across Europe with a focus on the recent attack outside the synagogue to the north of Manchester in the UK.

[00:24.6]
On October 2 during Yom Kippur A car ramming and stabbing outside the Heaton Park Hebrew Congregation killed two worshippers and injured several others. This was the most severe antisemitic attack in Europe so far this year, and authorities immediately labeled it an act of terrorism.

[00:42.9]
The timing on the holiest day in the Jewish calendar underscored the deliberate symbolic nature of the violence. But this isn’t an isolated event. Since the onset of the Gaza war in 2023, we’ve seen a surge in antisemitic violence, vandalism and intimidation across Europe.

[01:00.0]
And this trend has continued as we approach the second anniversary of that conflict erupting. In the UK alone, there are about 1,500 incidents recorded in just the first half of this year, an extremely high figure. France and Germany are also seeing similar patterns with attacks on synagogues, schools, Jewish leaders and cultural sites being reported this year.

[01:20.7]
Even smaller Jewish communities like those in Switzerland are being targeted. So why does this matter now? The Manchester attack highlights how antisemitic sentiments are manifested in acts of targeted violence. It also raises the risk of copycat incidents, particularly around Jewish holidays, or at high profile institutions.

[01:42.2]
Security services are responding with stronger patrols, but the overall threat environment remains elevated and geographically dispersed across much of Europe. For businesses or institutions directly impacted by these antisemitic attacks on their premises or in the vicinity, there are several implications.

[02:01.8]
Operations may be disrupted by lockdowns and road closures near attack sites. There are also knock on effects for supply chains, corporate travel security, insurance costs and even legal liability if firms fail to meet duty of care obligations.

[02:18.4]
Looking ahead, we assess with moderate to high confidence that antisemitic violence will stay elevated across Europe into 2026, with spikes during Jewish holidays and at moments of geopolitical tension. So what can organizations do? A few key resilience measures include upgrading site security, running vehicle ramming and active attacker drills, using real-time intelligence and alerting systems, and strengthening communication plans.

[02:47.5]
Partnerships with local law enforcement and geo security organizations are also critical, as are reviews of insurance and legal protections. In short, this is a sustained and regional trend that businesses and communities alike are encouraged to prepare for, not just an isolated crisis.