Full transcript

[00:05.4]
everybody, my name is Adam DeLuca, I'm the director of Risk Intelligence here at Everbridge and I'm joined here today by Caitlin Gillespie, our new Chief of Meteorology here at Everbridge. And you know, we just want to jump on real quick. There's obviously a major developing situation in the western Pacific.

[00:22.2]
So far the strongest storm of the year to date. And we wanted Caitlin to kind of get on and share her expertise. So Caitlin, could you maybe explain to us what, what's going in the western Pacific, why the storm so serious and why we should pay attention to it? Absolutely.

[00:37.7]
Thank you so much for having me on, Adam. So Sin Lake, who really put on a display of rapid intensification yesterday in the western Pacific and it reached that peak intensity of category 5 hurricane equivalent intensity with maximum sustained winds of 185 mph.

[00:56.2]
Now that is all due to very light upper level winds, extremely warm temperatures in the western Pacific. All those ingredients very supportive of a very powerful typhoon that we've seen. Now what makes this one a little bit different is typhoons are possible at any point in the year.

[01:14.0]
However strong typhoons like sinleiku and equivalent are quite rare this early in the calendar year. In fact, we actually need to go back to 1989 with Super Typhoon Andy, to kind of mimic a, an early season threat this close to Guam in the Northern Mariana Islands at this time.

[01:33.8]
But I did, just before our conversations, I did get the latest from the Joint Typhoon Warning center out of Hawaii. And Sin laku is about 160 miles east of Guam at this time, creeping northwestward at about 8 mph, but maintaining that 175 mile per hour maximum stained wind.

[01:54.1]
So that category 5 intensity still there even this afternoon. Adam, that's really interesting though. I mean this storm's happening this early and it's that large of a storm. Based off what you're seeing in some of the forecast models, do you think that this is indicative of a trend or is this just a myopic one off event?

[02:10.8]
Well, I really think, you know, with the developing and brewing El Nino that's been really hitting the news headlines and of course the weather, the weather chatter, I really do see that this could be a trend that we need to monitor going into the central and eastern Pacific seasons with that bring El Nino that will translate across much of the Pacific as those temperatures come down in the tropical waters.

[02:35.2]
That's obviously unfortunate for organizations with assets and interests in the area. You know, with the situation going on in the Middle east, the conflict between Iran, Israel and the United States. It's caused a lot of fuel shortages and supply chain issues specifically in the APAC region, due to their kind of lack of redundancies in their fuel supply chain.

[02:55.8]
You know, obviously a storm like this is going to complicate that. You know, what other kind of sectors or myopic, risks and vulnerabilities are going to be highlighted due to a storm like this. Absolutely. You know, when we're watching the track here, the biggest thing that when we're talking about tropical cyclones is they're not a point on the map.

[03:16.5]
Right. They are large, they are all encompassing and the way I like to phrase it, they're not multi hazardous. They're all hazardous because it's not just what's on the face value of the forecast, it's those cascading impacts that go underneath the surface as well. So you know, while the track really hasn't shifted all that much more recently, you know it will keep the center of Sin Lake you off to the north and east of the islands of Guam and Rota, focusing its attention more on Tinian and Saipan at this time.

[03:42.9]
But with that, I mean right before our conversation I did go ahead and measure the, the widespread nature of this system, the footprint that it has. And we're seeing tropical storm force winds expand 200 miles plus away from the center of this system.

[03:58.4]
So even without a direct impact, you know, Guam and Rota we can expect some very dangerous and devastating cond. You know, with those all encompassing things, we're looking at winds, rainfall, and of course coastal flooding as well. So you know, right now we're starting to see those showers and thunderstorms move onshore well ahead of this system that's saturating our soils even more.

[04:19.2]
So with that of course is going to come the landslide potential, increasing even after landfall. Power outages of course and of course the, the strain on energy and transportation and local infrastructure that can be expected and those will continue even after landfall Tuesday and into Wednesday.

[04:36.9]
And we're expecting rainfall totals in excess of 10 to 20 inches in such a short period of time. Yeah, storms like this and with other global events happening really kind of highlight the cascading impacts and damage that a storm does. Not just you know, locally with, with mudslides or storm surge but, but some of these other things relating to supply chain and transportation and energy infrastructure.

[04:59.7]
Oh, Caitlin, really appreciate you jumping on first rapid resilience video you've been here about a week. We're very excited to, have you. Caitlin's got an extensive background in emergency management, so she's going to understand intelligence and be able to voice that, through her experience in meteorology as well.

[05:17.7]
We're just. We're so excited to have you here. Thank you, Adam. I cannot wait to be joining this team and all the impacts that that Everbridge has a hand in. I am so thrilled to be providing some meteorology background and knowledge to every piece of it. Great. Thank you so much. Enjoy the rest of your day, everybody.

[05:34.1]
Thank you.

Full transcript

[00:05.0]
Hello, my name is Zsolt Chapregi. I'm the regional analyst for the Middle East and North Africa at Everbridges Global insights team. Today I will outline the current state and immediate forecast on the U. S Iran ceasefire negotiations scheduled for Saturday, April 11.

[00:20.1]
These talks matter because the current de escalation in the Iran war remains partial and highly vulnerable. The ceasefire is already showing visible strain on amid disputes over what was actually agreed, continued pressure on the Strait of Hormuz and spillover from Israel's military campaign against Hezbollah in Lebanon.

[00:38.9]
By the time talks begin, roughly a quarter of the two week polls announced by US President Donald Trump on April 7 will have already passed. An extension is possible and in fact may become necessary. But the compressed timeline still creates major anxiety for markets.

[00:54.9]
And as president Trump has warned that failure to meet US Demands could trigger renewed escalation, the ceasefire itself has not created a secure business environment in the Middle East. Kinetic signaling, contested interpretations of the truce and negotiation failure could all reignite escalation.

[01:12.1]
But even if the talks continue, the ceasefire sustains most of the economic disruptions. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains constrained by Iran with traffic still well below predictably pre conflict levels. That keeps energy markets nervous, raises transportation and insurance costs and sustains uncertainty for firms dependent on gulf shipping, refined products or time sensitive cargo.

[01:37.0]
Regional airspace disruptions and reduced schedules have not fully normalized across graph linked travel corridors, meaning companies should still expect rerouting delays, elevated operating costs and short notice itinerary changes. A further complication is Lebanon.

[01:54.3]
Israel is continuing its war against Hezbollah even as prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu has also authorized direct peace talks with Lebanon. That cuts both ways. On the one hand, continued fighting in Lebanon could hinder or even destabilize the U. S Iran negotiations.

[02:10.8]
On the other, if talks between Jerusalem and Beirut gain traction, they could eventually support a broader U. S led regional security framework and a more secure operating environment for businesses across the Middle east and the eastern Mediterranean. My current assessment is that both Washington and Tehran still interested in moving beyond the most severe phase of the crisis.

[02:34.7]
So the talks are more likely to drag and stumble than to collapse outright after the first round. That said, a durable agreement still looks unlikely in the near term for businesses. That means that the main risk is not an immediate restart of a full scale war, but a more volatile middle EAs over the coming weeks and months with periodic setbacks, isolated incidents raising the risk of renewed escalation.

[03:00.5]
This means continued disruptions to shipping, aviation, energy planning and executive risk management from a resilience perspective. This is the time to stress test continuity plans, review supply chain dependencies linked to Gulf shipping and air corridors, confirm crisis management and travel risk procedures, and ensure decision makers remain ready to for short notice disruption.

[03:24.1]
Companies should also begin considering scenarios not only for renewed escalation, but for a longer term restructuring of the Middle east after the war, including shifts in security alignments, trade corridors, energy flows and investment patterns. These are all aspects that we at Everbridge's Global Insights team will analyze in depth as the U S Iran talks unfold.

Full transcript

[00:05.4]
And thanks for joining. My name is James Burr and I'm a Senior Regional Analyst for Europe, the Caucuses and Central Asia. As of early April, we're seeing a developing security concern across parts of Europe involving attempted and low level attacks targeting US linked businesses and sites as well as Jewish linked institutions and places of worship.

[00:26.1]
This assessment is based on publicly available reporting, including recent incidents in Belgium, the Netherlands, Norway and the UK as well as the most recent foiled explosive device plot outside a Bank of America office in Paris. While attribution remains unclear, in several cases some attacks have been claimed by a pro Iran group, the so called Islamic Movement of the Companions of the Right.

[00:50.3]
Against the backdrop of heightened tensions linked to the war involving Iran, what we're seeing is not a pattern of high complexity mass casualty attacks, but rather, low complexity symbolic targeting. The Paris plot for example, appears to have involved relatively simple means and potentially decentralized actors, possibly recruited or coordinated through informal channels.

[01:14.3]
Separately, there have been arson and attack plots reported across several European countries. And a recent explosion outside the US Embassy in Oslo reinforces the risk of symbolic targeting of diplomatic or US affiliated sites. Taken together, this suggests a potentially diffuse cross border threat environment where individuals or small cells act with limited sophistication but clear ideological alignment.

[01:41.6]
For businesses, particularly those with visible US Israeli or Jewish affiliations, the risk is less about major acts of violence and more about accessibility and symbolism. Offices in urban centers, especially those with recognizable branding, can be approached through normal foot traffic, making them inherently harder to fully secure.

[02:03.5]
Even unsuccessful or low impact incidents can still lead to operational disruption, including police cordons, restricted access, increased security checks and short notice travel obstacles. There's also a reputational and duty of care dimension as employees may feel heightened concern, particularly at or near businesses or locations where incidents have recently taken place.

[02:29.1]
Looking ahead, we assess that security postures around US Linked and other symbolic sites in Europe will remain elevated in the near term. But the key variable is attribution. If a clearer Iran linked or proxy enabled network is confirmed, threat could become more sustained and geographically widespread.

[02:49.6]
In the meantime, the most likely scenario is a continuation of sporadic low complexity incidents with potential for copycat activity or opportunistic targeting. So for clients, the focus should be on situational awareness, employee movement, planning and engagement, local security guidance, rather than expecting large scale attacks, but also not dismissing the cumulative impact of smaller ones.

[03:17.0]
Thank you for listening.

Full transcript

[00:05.1]
Good morning. My name is Christie Majoros. I am the Regional Analyst for North America on Everbridge's Global Insights team. I'm sure you've all seen quite a bit in the news lately on the ongoing government shutdown situation. This is affecting the Department of Homeland Security. This department encompasses many other government agencies, and the debate really centers on the funding and reform for ICE and also, to some extent, Border Patrol.

[00:31.6]
However, we are seeing the lack of funding playing out in other arenas, most noticeably, TSA funding. So airports are experiencing these very long TSA screening lines, due to TSA personnel calling out or quitting, as they've not received a paycheck since mid February.

[00:55.7]
However, there have been developments on this front late last week and also yesterday, March 30th. I'm just going to outline a couple of those updates and give you a couple of takeaways. So on Friday afternoon, the Senate agreed upon and pushed forward a funding proposal, that would fund the Department of Homeland Security except for ICE and Border Patrol.

[01:24.1]
They sent this to the House for approval. It was not approved in the House. The House instead put forth a proposal for a continuing resolution. This would fund the Department of Homeland security at, 2025 fiscal year levels through May 22nd.

[01:43.2]
This resolution would need to be approved by the Senate and the President to move forward. However, Congress is now entering a two week recess, so decision on this matter will be postponed.

[02:02.7]
Should this resolution be passed when Congress returns, this will solve the immediate problem, restore funding for the Department of Homeland Security at least through May 22nd. However, in May, this is likely to continue to be a problem as the underlying problem of funding and reform for ICE has not been resolved.

[02:28.2]
If the resolution doesn't pass through the Senate, then the shutdown is likely to continue until a new funding proposal, is put forth. The situation regarding pay for TSA personnel also remains similarly unsolved, unresolved.

[02:47.3]
On Friday, the President issued an order for the Department of Homeland Security to go ahead and give those workers their back pay. So on Monday and also Today, Tuesday the 51st, they are receiving those checks that they missed, since February when the shutdown started.

[03:07.3]
However, it is unclear at this time whether this order also covers the next paycheck or only their back pay. So we could be seeing a situation in about two weeks where TSA workers are again not being paid, which would again lead to longer lines at the airports and renewed pressure on Congress to find a solution.

[03:35.7]
Now, there are really two takeaways from this situation. The first is that although the immediate situation has eased somewhat, it has not been resolved. Airports are likely to continue to see chaos in the coming weeks and months unless there is a more permanent solution arrived at.

[04:00.5]
The other big takeaway from this is that as, the national political environment has become more volatile, over the past couple of years, the use or threat of government shutdowns has become more common and they have become more prolonged.

[04:19.4]
What this means for businesses and organizations is that they should plan for the continued disruption of national infrastructure. If a funding proposal for ICE is found and agreed upon in the next couple of weeks, this would end the current shutdown and business would, resume as normal.

[04:41.6]
However, in terms of TSA disruption, this may take a while to normalize, as the agency saw. Hundreds of agents, quit during the current shutdown.

[04:57.6]
And also the presence of ICE at the airports is likely to continue until the situation normalizes, and this in and of itself may generate some controversy. So I would say what I say at the end of all of these videos, which is that businesses and organizations should hope for the best, but plan for the worst.

[05:19.1]
This means that even if the current situation is resolved, businesses and organizations should move forward on the assumption that further disruption to national infrastructure or government funding is subject to short term change and disruption.

Full transcript

[[00:05.6]
Thank you for joining. Today's video focused on global cyber risk in 2026. My name is James Burr and I'm a Senior Regional Analyst on Everbridge's Global Insights team. Just a quick disclaimer up front, I'm not a cyber expert and what I'm sharing today is a high level overview based on publicly available reporting and trend analysis focused on what it could mean for business risk.

[00:30.0]
Looking back at 2025, the big story wasn't necessarily brand new attack types, it was attackers operating at scale. Public reporting suggests ransomware Stayed high and often hit sectors where downtime is expensive like manufacturing, health care and parts of critical infrastructure.

[00:48.3]
At the same time, extortion sometimes lean more on data theft. So even if systems recover disclosure, legal and reputation exposure can still be significant. Another consistent theme reporting was identity compromise credentials, multi factor authentication or MFA fatigue session theft because it's a scalable way in and can look like normal user activity.

[01:14.4]
As we look towards 2026, many analysts expect a potential speed up effect, so artificial intelligence enabled automation and more cloud and software as a service or SaaS interdependence could expand the attack surface, especially if tools and integrations roll out faster than governance.

[01:34.1]
Reporting also points to continued focus on identity led intrusions and ongoing concern around operational technology or OT and industrial environments where the downside could include operational disruption, adding high volumes of vulnerabilities and tightened regulatory expectations.

[01:54.2]
And the overall risk discussion shifts from IT issue to business continuity and accountability. So what's the practical takeaway? Based on common themes in public guidance, organizations may get the most leverage by focusing on measurable resilience.

[02:10.8]
This ultimately means hardened identity, reducing over permissioned access, ensuring backups and recovery are tested, tightened segmentation, especially between IT and ot, and improving visibility into third party dependencies.

[02:26.9]
But the overall goal isn't perfection, it's more about reducing blast radius and improving recovery speed. So that's the quick snapshot. I'd be more than happy to further discuss what these trends could mean for your specific sector, or operating footprint in greater detail.

[02:43.7]
Thank you for listening.

Full transcript

[00:04.9]
Hi, I'm Zach Nelson, manager of the Global Insights team here at Everbridge and I'm joined by Zsolt Csepregi, our regional analyst for the Middle east and North Africa. Zsolt, thanks so much for joining us today. Hello. So today we're going to talk about the conflict in Iran which has already come to embroil much of the wider region.

[00:24.2]
So Zsolt, at a high level, could you catch us up on what's happened so far and what would you say are you know, some of the biggest, most important developments for the last 24 to 72 hours? Sure. So on Saturday February 26th the United States and Israel launched a joint military operation against Iran.

[00:43.2]
Now immediately after the initial strikes that also killed the Supreme Leader of Iran, Iran has used a massive region wide retaliation strategy, to try to promote its position in the military conflict.

[01:00.3]
And that meant that it didn't only retaliate against US forces in the region and Israel, but also launching a widespread missile and drone operation against neighboring Gulf and other Arab states including Jordan, Iraq.

[01:18.6]
And this means that we are looking at a very complex operational picture. So I think that the most important to note here is that Iran is now unleashed in the way that their Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which is the force, it's not the army, it's much stronger than the Iranian army is holding the launch buttons literally to the missile and drone capabilities of the Iranian state.

[01:52.8]
And they are trying to push this war from them being attacked by the joint US and Israeli forces into something more region wide and trying to engulf the whole region into this war.

[02:08.6]
So actually this is a race against the clock. And what it's also important to note is that the Iranian Foreign Minister was who said yesterday that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is acting independently and isolated.

[02:25.2]
So that means that that is the force that that is driving the escalation ladder in this conflict. And that's why we are seeing all kinds of impacts against Gulf energy infrastructure. Airports, civilian sites, hotels are being attacked by the Revolutionary Guard.

[02:42.5]
So while this is not the worst case scenario of escalating that the that the analysts were planning before the, before the attack, before the before this attack was launched after weeks of preparation.

[03:00.2]
But still it's a, it's a very critical, dangerous situation that we're having. Right. So let's talk a little bit More about, possible escalation pathways. Right. We know, Iran has a network of, you know, proxy militant groups as allies, right?

[03:17.7]
Hezbollah and Lebanon, the Houthis. And a concern that some people have raised is the potential for, asymmetric retaliation. Right. We've, you know, seen news of, of plots in the past, high profile assassinations, that Iran has been involved in in recent years.

[03:36.6]
What forms do you think retaliation or, you know, escalation could, could potentially take? So I would highlight immediately that what Iran is right now doing is already asymmetric because the US and the Israeli forces are targeting military sites, governmental sites, nuclear facilities, and the domestic, security forces bases inside Iran.

[04:00.8]
But the Iranian Revolutionary Guard is targeting, as I said, energy infrastructure, ports, airports. So, completely different type of set of targets than the US and the Israeli forces are targeting. So this is already an asymmetric conflict.

[04:16.4]
But referring to what you just mentioned about proxies, sure, the Iranian proxies can do, a similar, or follow a similar strategy that the Revolutionary Guard Corps is doing right now.

[04:32.0]
But what we have seen in the last days that Iran's so called proxies, and I'm saying so called because right now we're seeing that they are not real proxies because they are more worried about their own survival than actually entering into this war, in a decisive manner on behalf of Iran.

[04:50.4]
So Hezbollah, a day ago had, three rockets initially launched at, Israel. But Israel has launched a major operation in Lebanon and also now ground troops are pushing forward, in Lebanon. So Hezbollah doesn't really have a space to, to escalate much further, especially that the Lebanese government is also trying to, to, to crack down on Hezbollah activity.

[05:13.3]
I think the biggest question right now is whether the Houthis in Yemen will enter the fight because they can open an additional front threatening the Bab El Mandeb Strait. That means the Red Sea, transportation and, by that the, Suez Canal, the security of, crossing the Suez Canal.

[05:33.3]
And they can also open a southern front against, Saudi Arabia. But right now, after four days, they have not joined the war. They are probably afraid of additional forces allied with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates who are present in Yemen.

[05:50.8]
But that is the biggest, escalation driver that can happen apart from Iran itself. Iran stepping up, it's already asymmetric and region wide, retaliation strikes. Right. So if we look outside, you know, the immediate theater of operations, we've seen a, lot of protest activities, street mobilizations, demonstrations crop up all over the world really. Right.

[06:17.9]
In response to this, in the Middle east, in Europe we've seen some in the United States here. What's your assessment of the protest landscape globally? Yes. So the protest landscape is much different than what would have been a, year ago, because of the violent crackdown on the Iranian protest in January 2026.

[06:39.5]
So the Iranian regime doesn't really have a lot of supporters internationally. So we are seeing much less protests and demonstrations on behalf of the Iranian regime than what we would have if this war has erupted, would have erupted, a few months ago.

[06:59.8]
That said, there are not so much pro Iran protests internationally, but anti war type of, mobilizations. I think that these are right now very small scale. But they need to be monitored.

[07:15.5]
They invest on capitals and major cities. Sure. In the Middle east there are, I wouldn't say pro Iran, but more like anti American and anti Israeli protest from Baghdad to major Pakistani cities. Islamabad, Karachi, Lahore, and Bahrain can be a significant spot in northeastern Saudi Arabia where these protests can happen.

[07:40.9]
I would say that right now the protest landscape is much lower than what could have been expected before such a major military operation was launched against Iran. That said protest can be a vehicle for extremist actors to carry out their attacks.

[08:00.2]
So that's why it's not the protests themselves which are the major threats. They can be disruptive, they can disrupt transportation, they can create some kind of a friction in downtown areas, worldwide. But the biggest threat is lone wolf attackers and also extremist small groups and cells using the protest to get close to their target.

[08:25.3]
Right. Well, let's let's turn to the cyber front. Whenever we see a conflict like this pick up, there's often someone accompanying cyber activity. What do you think we're in store for here? Should we expect cyber targeting of companies or infrastructure or government services?

[08:43.5]
What do you foresee on that front? Most of it's already ongoing and actually it has been ongoing for a month. So the cyber environment of this US Iran, Israeli Iran, let's say competition, but more like cyber conflict has been going on for years.

[09:01.0]
So what we can see is an elevated level of cyber threats. Especially as the regime forces are running out of other options. So what they will have is relying more on their missiles and drones and also trying to create disruptions in the cyber realm.

[09:21.6]
I would say that the most endangered areas of companies are on the two ends of the spectrum. Either if they are for example energy companies or telecommunications companies, and by attacking them, you can create a lot of disruptions and even threaten lives in for example even in the mainland United States.

[09:47.6]
The other end are more soft targets where you can deliver a message to the population that you want to influence. So I would even envision delivery services, apps on your phone being hacked in the coming days and trying to get some upsetting message out.

[10:08.4]
So soft targets that Since the most energy is going into defending critical infrastructure and all the it establishment behind that, so what the attackers will do is try to shift to the.

[10:26.8]
To the more soft targets but where they can create an outsized effect. Right? And going off of that. Let's talk you know, economic impact more broadly. Right? You know, fuel prices, supply chain disruptions, shipping risks. What do you think that companies you know, in the near term should be planning for and expecting.

[10:49.1]
In the near term, the biggest challenge is not I would say the actual damage that that can happen to the energy infrastructure in the Gulf, but the trust that this damage can be fixed quickly.

[11:08.4]
Since prices are a matter of trust. I'm paying a certain amount of money for something because I trust that even tomorrow I can buy the same thing. We can see that with the current elevation in the oil and gas prices on the world market, that most of the traders think that these disruptions are not going to be They're not going to last for months.

[11:34.0]
They might experience a supply chain disruption for weeks but not months and definitely not years. If that trust is eroding, then we're not speaking about for example in terms of the price of crude oil.

[11:52.6]
We're not talking about 80 or 100 US Dollars for a barrel of Brent oil on the global market. But we are more talking about 130 or even higher prices. But that's a matter of trust.

[12:08.6]
And I would say that right now, most of the market is assured that this conflict will end in a few weeks, four or five weeks or at least the main impact, and not longer.

[12:26.5]
If that calculation changes that, then that can create a spiral out effect on prices and that would create inflation and other Economic disruptions in the world market. Right. Something else we've seen is, a lot of airport closures throughout the region in the Gulf and elsewhere.

[12:47.6]
What are the top risk mitigation strategies that are steps that you might recommend right now for travelers who are either currently in the region or looking to transit through the region? Yes, I think that the biggest problem that after four days one can make with travel safety is thinking about the same mitigation step that everyone else is thinking about.

[13:11.5]
So we can often, right now, I would advise for any planning to go one step further than you would logically think that it's that it's required. So for example, if the first people who are booking their flights outside of the region would probably choose Istanbul, Cairo or Mumbai to avoid, the core Middle east region and the Gulf, go one step forward, try traveling around the world in the other direction if that's possible for you.

[13:49.5]
So, maybe you will lose a few hours, but you will save yourself much more trouble and disruptions if you're getting caught up. Not in the region, not in a war fighting zone, because that's of course the most horrible scenario where you can find yourself.

[14:05.0]
But even just getting stuck at an airport where other tens or even hundreds of thousands of people are trying to pass through, in a very condensed, time period as this war is unfolding.

[14:21.7]
Right. Okay. And yeah. So, lastly here, let me just ask you, are there any other, you know, mitigation actions that you might recommend to companies more broadly as we're looking ahead over the next week or so? Anything for you know, security leaders, operations leadership, teams.

[14:38.0]
Anything else, that they should be keeping in mind or thinking about? Sure. So I think that the most important, and this cannot be repeated enough times, monitoring, like being up to date with what's actually happening. This is such a quickly, developing risk environment that we are now seeing in the Middle east with cascading effects on the board.

[14:59.4]
I just mentioned, the whole, issue with energy, prices and you mentioned travel implications. So as these effects are really rapidly, radiating out, in the, in the region and beyond, that's going to create huge, disruption. So monitoring.

[15:19.3]
The second is have multiple plans in place. Have, have a plan for all scenarios. We don't know how far the escalation will unfold. It's the qu. This is a, again as I said, a race against the clock. How far. The Revolutionary Guard will have the capabilities to launch missiles and rockets at the region, and whether proxies are joining the fight.

[15:44.3]
So have a scenario in place for all these eventualities. And the third thing, and this is really important, have also a playbook for all of them and have solid communication plans who's speaking to whom. Once we see for example that the Houthis have actually joined the fight and they are trying to close shipping, in the Red Sea, and then what the company or the stakeholder has to do.

[16:12.4]
So have those three things monitoring scenarios and the playbook in place for the coming days and weeks because this is going to get long and it's going to get worse before it gets better. Zsolt Csepregi, thank you so much for joining us and for sharing your expertise.

[16:30.0]
Thank you very much.

Full transcript

[00:08.4]
Hi, my name is Benjamin Olson with the Everbridge Global Insight team and in today's rapid Resilience briefing we're looking at the sharp escalation between Afghanistan and Pakistan over the past 24 hours. Tensions have been building since the Taliban returned to power in 2021.

[00:23.8]
Since then, Pakistan has repeatedly accused Kabul of tolerating or failing to control militant groups like Tariq e Taliban Pakistan or TTP who operate in the Afghani territory and do carry out strikes inside Pakistan over the past year that has led to repeated cycles of violence and fragile ceasefires between both countries, including one recently brokered in last October by Qatar and Turkey that has now ultimately collapsed.

[00:52.2]
Over the past several days, the situation has intensified. Beginning on February 22, Pakistan carried out airstrikes inside Afghanistan along the 2,600 kilometer Durand Line. Afghan authorities say they then retaliated on February 26 along the Pakistani border.

[01:10.3]
Pakistan now has escalated further by deploying fighter aircraft alongside artillery and ground strikes targeting military installations in Kabul, Kandahar and Pak T. Drone operations are continuing at this time between both sides hitting targets.

[01:27.9]
What makes this different than any other situation since 2021? The scope here? Pakistan appears to have now been targeting Taliban government military infrastructure, not just the alleged milita camps where the TTT operate, increasing the risks of sustained state level confrontation.

[01:46.2]
Pakistan Defense minister on social media has even described the situation as open war. The UN regional actors and other countries are calling for rapid de escalation at this time. However, however, fighting is still continuing.

[02:02.5]
Casualty figures do remain contested here as well. All we have is open sources and open sources do say 150 to 300 killed with possibly 450 wounded. But as of right now nothing is for certain just because of the volatility of the situation.

[02:19.1]
Civilian deaths are not reported in, only a few injuries. But once again we don't know. Everything is very limited. For most Western firms, direct exposure to Afghanistan is limited. The greater concern here is the spillover into Pakistan.

[02:36.2]
The Torqham border crossing, a key trade choke point between Afghanistan and Pakistan is being affected. There have been past claims of weeks and months of cargo being stuck at the border and that is likely going to happen too. Pakistan though is more integrated into the global supply chains which export textiles to North America and Europe, agricultural goods like rice and a significant share of world surgical instruments.

[03:03.4]
Escalation here also raises the duty of care concern for personnel in country. Air travel is another secondary risk. If airlines decide to reroute to avoid the area, expect longer flight times, higher cost and potential delays especially between the Europe and South Asia sectors.

[03:23.6]
Near term we are continuing to expect tit for tat strikes on both sides, possible temporary border closures and renewed mediation efforts. The key risk here is miscalculation particularly if strikes expand towards major cities or infrastructure within Pakistan.

[03:40.9]
So what should organizations be doing right now? Well there are a few things. Reassess travel and duty of care protocol for Pakistan, validate crisis communication and response plans, stress test supply chains and identify alternative sourcing where possible and review insurance and compliance screening and escalating triggers.

[04:01.7]
In short out of all of this this is the most serious Afghanistan Pakistan confrontation in years but it does remain regionally concentrated. Most western firms do not face direct exposure here though it does need to be noted that contingency planning is prudent for those with personnel or suppliers in Pakistan.

[04:22.4]
Everbridge and the Global Insight team will continue to monitor and provide updates as the risk landscape evolves and changes as this event continues to proceed. Thank you so much.

Full transcript

[00:05.2]
Hello, my name is Zsolt Chepregi. I'm the Regional Analyst for the Middle east and North Africa at Everbridges Global Insights team. Today I will outline the current state and immediate forecast of the U. S. Iran nuclear negotiations that are taking place in Oman as of Friday, February 13th.

[00:22.8]
The most significant new development, is that the US is dispatching the USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier and accompanying warships to join the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group already present in the Middle East. Thereby, it's significantly reinforcing its military leverage over the next stage of diplomacy with Tehran.

[00:43.8]
On the diplomatic calendar. We still do not have a confirmed date for the next round of negotiations, but Ovan remains central. Muscat is not just the venue, it's functioning as a container that both sides accept, keeping the diplomatic channel alive even as military pressure rises around it.

[01:00.9]
The main point to note right now regarding the upcoming talks is that both sides appear to be settling, at least for the time being, on discussing only Iran's nuclear program and what the imposed constraints and verification would look like. Tehran has framed the Muscat talks as a good start, but, also as a process focused strictly on nuclear terms.

[01:22.7]
Not its missiles, not its regional proxies, and definitely not its domestic politics. Iran has also signaled an openness to comprehensive nuclear inspections. That matters because inspections and verification are the foundation for any sustainable nuclear agreement guaranteeing that Iran will not be able to move toward a nuclear weapon from the US Side.

[01:45.2]
However, reporting out of Washington continues to suggest a broader ambition for the talks. Even if the current plane is nuclear, only the US May be interested. And it's also urged by its primary regional partner, Israel, to eventually expand the scope toward ballistic missiles and Iran's regional activities.

[02:05.7]
So what can we forecast? The most likely near term outlook is a month of tense calm as diplomacy continues under intense military pressure. This is in line with US President Donald Trump's stated outlook on the time horizon to achieve a deal.

[02:21.7]
However, there is a real chance of derailment if the scope, question, verification terms or sanctions relief sequencing becomes a hard stop for either side. For businesses operating in or exposed to the Middle east, the key risk channels are sanctions, volatility and any escalation that disrupts travel and logistics.

[02:42.4]
Additional sanctions pressure can create cascading compliance, banking and supply chain effects. And while a military flare up could trigger short notice airspace restrictions, maritime disruption and temporary travel interruptions, cyber risk also tends to rise during periods of heightened US Iran tension.

[03:01.1]
So organizations should maintain elevated monitoring, validate contingency travel and routing plans, and ensure that incident response and third party risk controls are current.

Full transcript

[00:05.0]
Good. Afternoon. My name is Christy Majoris. I am the regional analyst for North America here on Everbridge's Global Insights team. Today I will be giving a brief update on the situation at El Paso Airport in Texas. You've probably seen a lot of this in the news this morning.

[00:21.0]
So, late last night, the FAA issued a temporary flight restriction for a 10 mile radius around the airport. They, they cited unspecified security concerns and also stated these measures would remain in place for approximately 10 days.

[00:37.2]
And this effectively halted flight operations in and out of the airport. And then a few hours later, it was lifted. And this set off a flurry of speculation as to what had caused the flight restriction in the first place. Why this extraordinary measure of 10 days for a major commercial airport?

[00:56.1]
And in the immediate aftermath, there was sort of two competing explanations. First, that the military was responding to Mexican cartel linked drones which had infringed on US Airspace near El Paso. And second, that the FAA was responding to US Military training exercises, anti drone training exercises at Fort Bliss, which is quite close to El Paso airport.

[01:24.8]
And since then we've had a little bit more clarity and it has emerged that there's a kernel of truth to both these explanations. The military is indeed conducting anti drone training exercises, in response to the proximity of Mexican cartel linked drones near the US Border.

[01:45.0]
And the FAA is also concerned at the proximity of these training exercises, to civilian airspace, and in this near El Paso airport. And it seems that there was a breakdown in communication between these two agencies with the FAA not being able to verify, from the Department of Defense, whether these exercises, which reportedly involved the use of high energy lasers, posed a threat to civilian flight operations at El Paso.

[02:23.1]
So they took the initiative and went ahead and issued that temporary flight restriction. Since then, communication has resumed between the two agencies, hence the lifting of the flight restrictions. And though the situation has largely returned to normal, there are a few things that we would highlight, going forward.

[02:43.4]
One is this continued and increasing use of drones, not just by foreign threat actors, but also commercially, and also the responding training exercises that would, be conducted by the military or other law enforcement agencies.

[03:02.9]
There is this issue of shared airspace. These are all things happening near urban centers, and these are all things happening in shared airspace. This issue of communication becomes really, really important. We would highlight this short incident as illustrative of what happens when there is a breakdown in communication between agencies and just how quickly these disruptions can cascade.

[03:34.4]
Not only did this affect commercial flight operations, but it also forced the diversion of medical evacuation flights to other airports and caused quite a bit of distress amongst, city officials in El Paso because there was no communication there either.

[03:52.4]
So how do you plan for this sort of thing? Well, I will give the same advice that I give in all of these videos, which is to plan for the worst. Have a backup plan if airspace is suddenly closed. Account for the possibility that there is a lack of communication.

[04:09.7]
So have backup plans for supply chains and for executive travel.

Full transcript

[00:04.9]
Hello, my name is Wyatt Kinney. I'm the Asia Pacific Regional Analyst with the Everbridge Global Insights team. In this briefing, I'll provide an overview of the Bangladesh national elections coming up on February 12, 2026, with a focus on the political context and near term operational considerations.

[00:21.7]
To begin, here's a brief overview of the election. Bangladesh is scheduled to hold parliamentary elections in a national referendum on February 12, 2026. The vote will take place under the interim administration led by Chief Advisor Muhammad Yunus. The election and referendum are intended to support a return to parliamentary governance following political changes in 2024.

[00:43.2]
The pre election environment remains closely managed with elevated administrative coordination and security oversight. Turning to the political context shaping the election, the February 2026 elections are taking place under an interim administration. The current electoral fields include the Bangladesh Nationalist Party, also known as the bnp, the Jamaat e Islami Party and the National Citizen Party, also known as ncp.

[01:09.9]
Voter voters will take part in a referendum on the July Charter which outlines proposed governance reforms. International observation missions, including from the European Union are present to monitor the process. Next, I'll touch on security conditions and political activity during the election period.

[01:29.0]
Election periods in Bangladesh are typically accompanied by increased political mobilization, expanded security force deployments, tighter controls around key locations. In the current cycle, authorities are, have emphasized preventative measures, rapid response to gatherings, protection of polling related infrastructure.

[01:50.2]
Recent incidents involving political figures, have contributed to a more cautious security posture. Increased monitoring of campaign events and demonstrations. Current indicators suggest activity related risks remain localized, primarily in like urban centers.

[02:07.9]
Disruption is more likely to take the form of movement restrictions and traffic controls than sustained civil unrest. Urban centers, particularly in daca, are expected to experience the most noticeable operational constraints during the election period.

[02:25.5]
Related to this, it's also important to address protest activity and urban disruption. DACA has experienced public demonstrations and labor related actions in the period leading up to the election. In response, authorities have implemented traffic controls and restricted zones near government facilities during the election period, primarily from February 11th through the 13th.

[02:49.7]
There's a high likelihood of, you know, localized road closures, delays to public services, general movement restrictions. Briefly I'll address the terrorism and extremism risk environments. Security assessments indicate an elevated but non, a non specific risk of opportunistic activity during the election period.

[03:11.6]
There is no confirmed reporting of an imminent or coordinated extremist plot. Any potential incidents would most likely involve low complexity methods and public or symbolic locations. For most organizations, this translates to general situational awareness rather than a targeted threat exposure.

[03:32.4]
Finally, there are important economic and trade considerations to keep in mind. Bangladesh plays a central role in global textile and apparel manufacturing, including logistics. Short term disruption could affect inland transport, port operations and custom administrative processes.

[03:52.0]
These impacts are expected to be time limited and operational rather than structural. Regional and global effects would most likely involve schedule variability, not supplied loss. The outlook so looking ahead to the immediate period around the election, pre election period, during the election and post election so pre election period there's going to be an increased security presence and administrative control controls.

[04:18.7]
During the actual election period on February 12th expect temporary disruption to mobility and government services. Post election conditions will depend on administrative sequencing and political responses. To conclude the February 12, 2026 Bangladesh National Elections represents a defined operational period requiring planning and awareness.

[04:43.6]
The main considerations relate to mobility, scheduling and administrative pace. Conditions are best characterized as managed and time bound rather than actual unrest.